“The eurozone’s uncertain economic slack”
Ökonomen lieben ihre Konzepte. Eines davon ist der sogenannte „Output Gap“, mit dem, vereinfacht gesagt, die Auslastung der Wirtschaft gemessen wird. Gibt es einen Gap, ist die Wirtschaft nicht ausgelastet, es droht keine Inflation und die Notenbank kann Gas geben. Je kleiner der Gap, desto höher nach dieser Logik, die natürlich auch zur Philipps Kurve passt, die Inflationsgefahr.
Heute Morgen habe ich Wolfgang Münchau zitiert, der auch von einem strukturell geringeren Wachstum in der Eurozone sprach. Vermutlich zu Recht.
Jetzt geht es um die Diskussion dieses Themas im EZB-Rat mit erwartbaren Positionen. Wenn man auf dem geldpolitischen Gaspedal bleiben möchte, zum Beispiel, um Italien zu stabilisieren, sieht man einen Gap, wenn man also die Risiken für Deutschland (endlich!) begrenzen will, sieht man keinen Gap.
Surprise, Surprise, so ist es auch im Rat der EZB!
- “More information emerged on the split in the ECB’s account of its March policy meeting, which came out on Thursday. The minutes were followed by an insightful, original speech by executive board member Benoît Cœuré in Paris later in the day. It is worth following closely because the debate on judgments on the degree of ‚slack‘ between where the economy is and where it could be has important implications for monetary policy.” – bto: Blödsinn. Es dient doch nur der Begründung, nicht der Entscheidungsfindung!
- “Now that the eurozone’s economy has recovered, officials are scratching their heads about why inflation still remains weak. The council’s more hawkish contingent flagged that on European Commission and OECD estimates (as well as the ECB’s own), the output gap appears to have already closed. Not so, say the doves, who in this instance include president Mario Draghi and chief economist Peter Praet, as well as Cœuré.” – bto: echt? Das ist doch überraschend …
- “The reason this second camp thinks there remains some slack in the economy is broadly because it has become a lot more optimistic about the region’s future. In the dark years of the crisis, policymakers murmured about ‚hysteresis effects‘ — the belief that the turmoil had been so bad that the economy had forever lost some of its spring. Unemployment would remain elevated, business would lack confidence to invest in the latest machinery and growth would forever be a little lower as a result. Now the optimists believe this hysteresis trend could go into reverse, boosting the eurozone’s growth potential.” – bto: Da fasse ich mich natürlich an den Kopf. Wie kann man angesichts der demografischen Entwicklung so etwas denken?
- “The reasons Cœuré gives for this optimism include a belief that people who have dropped out of the labour market will soon return, that the underemployed will manage to work more hours as the region’s growth spurt continues and that the region has plenty of untapped potential to improve productivity through digitalisation. If this is right, then there would be plenty of room to boost its supply potential.” – bto: siehe Japan. Die machen es super, Stichwort BIP/Kopf. Dennoch stagniert die Wirtschaft. Richtig ist aber, es gibt keine Inflation.
- “There are two implications for monetary policy. The debate will affect not only when the bank drops its crisis-era stimulus, but also — as Cœuré made clear — what happens to interest rates in the longer term. The more slack there is, the less the ECB has to worry about. That is not too difficult to grasp.” – bto: Angesichts der Demografie kann es nur eine Politik wie in Japan geben.
- “What is a little less obvious are the longer term effects. This is Cœuré’s reasoning for why rates can inch higher than previously thought: If potential growth has not fallen by as much as we thought, it may imply that the neutral rate of interest — the level that determines the degree of accommodation our policies provide — might be higher than is commonly estimated.” – bto: Und hier denke ich, mag ja theoretisch sein. Aber habt ihr euch mal die Welt angesehen? Pleite und überaltert?
- “Stronger growth and lower unemployment would help heal a currency union that remains fractured by years of crisis that at times left its existence in doubt. Higher rates would give the ECB more wriggle room come the next crisis. But the debate on this will remain open for some time. Judging the size of the output gap is a crucial part of the policymaking process, yet as Cœuré admits, measuring it is ‚riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma‘. – bto: Leider sagt es nicht, ob und wenn ja was Relevantes die anderen Mitglieder des Gremiums gesagt haben. Sicher dürfte sein, dass die Währungsunion ohnehin nicht die nächste Rezession überlebt.
→ ft.com (Anmeldung erforderlich): “The eurozone’s uncertain economic slack”, 16. April 2018
