“Super Mario” hat bei der EZB die Weichen für Italien gestellt
Bekanntlich sehe ich Mario Draghi nicht so kritisch wie viele deutsche Medien und dies, obwohl der Cicero meine damalige Geschichte mit einem Dracula auf dem Cover versah:
Nun wird also der “Retter des Euro” – wir wissen, er hat nur Zeit gekauft, die die Politik nicht nutzte – zum “Retter Italiens”, nachdem die Vorgängerregierung über die Verteilung der EU – also eigentlich deutschen – Milliarden aus dem “Wiederaufbaufonds” zerbrochen ist. Kann die Rettung gelingen? Roger Bootle von Capital Economics blickt im Telegraph auf die Lage (die uns natürlich bekannt ist, die aber eine Wiederholung gut gebrauchen kann):
- “(…) you could reasonably ask what’s new about Italy being in a political crisis. It has been in one throughout the post-war period, having already got through 66 governments in the last 75 years. It is partly because of this rolling political chaos, already evident when the Treaty of Rome was signed in 1957, that so many Italians felt happy about joining what we now call the EU, and were subsequently pleased to join the euro.” – bto: vor allem den Euro, weil der natürlich viel stabiler ist, als die Lira. Allerdings mit der unangenehmen Nebenwirkung, dass man dann an Wettbewerbsfähigkeit verliert.
- “(…) Italian euroscepticism is now both widespread and often strongly felt. Not surprisingly. As it turned out, the EU has not been much of a saviour. Indeed, with the euro it has made matters much worse, not to mention its shenanigans during the migration crisis.” – bto: wobei die Migranten überwiegend weiterziehen.
- “(…) Italy has secured a large chunk of the EU’s post-covid recovery fund. But it hasn’t yet come up with a plan as to how to spend it that would allow the EU to release the money. And substantial though the sums are, if and when Italy receives the money, it will not be enough to revive the economy.” – bto: Das ist auch nicht möglich. Dazu sind die Schulden des Staates zu hoch, das Land zu ineffizient regiert und die Demografie zu schlecht.
- “It feels as though Italy is inching towards the endgame. Over recent years, the inability of Italy’s politicians to address its fundamental problems has produced widespread disillusion (…) Italy’s performance during the pandemic has not been good. With about 90,000 Covid-related deaths so far, its death rate is near the worst in Europe.” – bto: klar, UK war aber auch nicht gerade super.
- “After contracting by about 9pc last year, it looks as though the Italian economy may this year recover by about 4pc. But this would still leave output well below the pre-pandemic peak. On current form, that marker will probably not be reached until late 2022, well behind other major European economies, let alone the US.” – bto: Und wir wissen, dass die Wirtschaftsleistung schon zuvor auf dem Stand von 1999 lag. Es gab zwei Jahrzehnte ohne Zuwachs.
- “(…) we have come to recognise Italy’s problem with public debt as perhaps the clearest manifestation of its plight. Before the Covid crisis, the ratio of government debt to GDP was running at about 135pc. Now it is probably just under 160pc. This compares with 68pc in Germany and about 110pc in the UK. (…) If you now lend to the Italian government for 10 years you will earn just ½pc per annum. The reason for this apparent insouciance in the bond markets is quite simple. Even though Super Mario is no longer there, the ECB has stepped into the breach and offered more or less unlimited support to bond markets in trouble.” – bto: Damit ist das Staatsschuldenproblem gelöst. Einfach weg.
- “It isn’t as though Italy has done particularly badly over the last couple of years but rather that nothing has happened to redress the previous two decades of under-performance. The figures are startling (…) Since the euro was formed in 1999 to the end of 2019, the Italian economy grew by only 9pc. This compares with 35pc for France, 32pc for Germany and 45pc for the UK.” – bto: So beweist UK, dass man den Euro nicht braucht, um zu wachsen. Aber das wussten wir ja schon.
- “(…) its problems are far from being all about the euro. In particular, the failure of the Italian political system to get anywhere near introducing a programme of radical reform goes right to the nub of the issue. Even so, it is difficult to believe that membership of the euro has not played a critical part in Italy’s travails. In particular, it has prevented the country from making use of its customary exit path from economic crisis and loss of competitiveness, namely a depreciation of the exchange rate.” – bto: Dies ist mittlerweile wirklich ein Problem, das sich auch durch Transfers nicht lösen lassen wird.
“These things are even more difficult than saving the euro.” – bto: Mag sein, wobei der ja auch noch nicht gerettet ist.
