STICHWORTE: • • • • • • •von

So kann man QE der EZB auch beschreiben: voll am Kern vorbei

Gute Frage: Wem nützt es, wenn die EZB im großen Stil Wertpapiere aufkauft? Vordergründig profitieren die Verkäufer, die einen garantierten Gewinn einfahren. Indirekt sollen die Bevölkerungen Europas profitieren durch geringere Arbeitslosigkeit und höhere Einkommen. Faktisch dürften es nur die Schuldner sein, die weiterhin so tun können, als wäre alles o. k.

Einen Blick auf die Folgen des Quantitative Easing in Europa wirft dieser Beitrag bei Project Syndicate:

  • “With the European Central Bank having recently ended quantitative easing (QE), this is an appropriate time to reflect on the policy’s impact. Three conclusions seem obvious: the ECB’s asset purchases had important macroeconomic benefits; the political costs of QE were much greater than anyone expected; and the whole episode was truly awful for the Bundesbank.” – bto: für die Bundesbank oder die Bürger Deutschlands, deren Auslandsvermögen schlecht angelegt ist?
  • “By reducing the cost of bank loans through QE, the ECB encouraged lending to small firms and households across the eurozone. That gave an important boost to economic growth, leading to marked falls in unemployment and upward pressures on wage costs. Although headline inflation rose, underlying inflation remains weak, meaning that the ECB must maintain an expansionary monetary policy.” – bto: So, muss sie das? Wäre es nicht besser, die Krankheit zu adressieren, statt die Symptome mit Schmerzmitteln zu unterdrücken?
  • “Financial crises lead to a surge in demand for liquidity as financial institutions worry about the solvency of other players. Central banks can and should satisfy that demand by expanding their balance sheets, because not doing so can lead to a collapse in the money stock and a deep recession, as the US Federal Reserve demonstrated in the early 1930s.” – bto: Nun ja, ob es wirklich an der falschen Politik der Fed damals lag, ist umstritten. Richtig ist, dass die Notenbanken diesmal eine Schulden-Deflation aufgeschoben haben. Sie haben das Problem aber größer gemacht, nicht kleiner.
  • “But while QE has been effective and its legality is not in doubt, the ECB’s policies have triggered a huge political backlash by making almost all assets more expensive. At first glance, this might seem counter-intuitive. Higher housing prices lead to more building activity, which increases employment. Rising share prices boost the economy by shoring up the balance sheets and confidence of firms, households, and financial institutions. And lower bond yields – the corollary of rising bond prices – make finance cheaper and more available to companies and households alike.But the asset-price boom also led to eye-popping increases in wealth for the richest few, which inflamed many Europeans who are still facing unemployment and painful austerity after the financial crisis.” – bto: was aber nun wirklich niemanden wundern kann. Es war ein Programm, das Vermögenswerte stabilisieren musste, um einen Crash zu verhindern. Dabei genügt es nicht, sie zu stabilisieren, sie müssen weiter anwachsen.
  • In addition, the decline in interest rates has provoked widespread protests by savers, particularly in Germany. (…) German savers hold much less of their wealth in equities and much more in life-insurance products than their counterparts elsewhere in Europe. As a result, the stock-market boom has passed them by and the low-interest-rate environment has hurt their life-insurance plans.” – bto: Deshalb sind wir auch mit die Ärmsten der Eurozone.
  • “(…) the whole episode has been awful for the Bundesbank. In numerous speeches and interviews, its top brass have insisted that QE is unnecessary and raises obvious inflation risks, only to see inflation undershoot the ECB’s target year after year. Bundesbank officials also have argued that low interest rates will trigger financial instability, although this has not happened yet (…) the Bundesbank maneuvered itself into a corner and lost influence and standing.” – bto: Da ist man baff. Denn wie kann man über die Konsequenzen von QE schreiben, ohne TARGET2 und die damit verbundene Finanzierung von Kapitalflucht überhaupt zu erwähnen?

→ project-syndicate.org: “Three Lessons from QE in Europe”, 31. Januar 2019