Schwangerschaften prognostizieren Rezessionen – Börsen auch
Es gibt Ökonomen, die an die Wirkung von sozialen Strömungen glauben. Ich zähle mich dazu. Demzufolge sind Börsen nichts anderes als Stimmungsbarometer, die das abbilden, was in der Gesellschaft passiert. Dem folgen dann die Realwirtschaft und die Politik. Je besser man also die Stimmungen der Gesellschaft, die sich auch in Wellen bewegt, abbilden kann, desto höher die Wahrscheinlichkeit Realwirtschaft und letztlich auch Börsen vorherzusagen.
Blödsinn? Wohl nicht, wenn man sich die neuste Studie zum Zusammenhang von Schwangerschaften und Rezessionen ansieht. Offensichtlich spüren die Menschen den Abschwung frühzeitig und bekommen weniger Kinder:
- “A paper published (…) by the National Bureau of Economic Research shows that, ahead of the past three US recessions, the number of conceptions began to fall at least six months before the economy started to contract. While previous research has shown how birth rates track economic cycles, the NBER study is the first to show that fertility declines are a leading indicator for recessions.”– bto: was ja eigentlich nicht so überraschen sollte, sind doch Schwankungen in der Wirtschaft auch Ausfluss von vielen einzelnen Entscheidungen von Menschen.
- “(…) it was “striking” that the drop in pregnancies was evident before the recession that came after the 2007 financial crisis, since it has traditionally been argued that this slump had been hard to predict. (…) In fact the (…) number of conceptions in the US rose slightly between the first half of 2006 and the first half of 2007. But the year-on-year growth rate turned negative in the third quarter of that year, when US stock indices were still hitting then-all-time highs and six months before a similar decline in economic output.” – bto: Nicht schlecht, damit kann man also die Kursentwicklung vorhersagen. Wäre die Frage, wie sich die Zahlen derzeit entwickeln!
- “The analysis used data on the 109m births in the US between 1989-2016 to examine how fertility rates changed through the last three economic cycles — in the early 1990s, the early 2000s and the late 2000s. (…) The team found that falls in conceptions predicted recessions as well and as far in advance — if not more so — than many commonly used indicators such as consumer confidence, measures of uncertainty, and purchases of big-ticket items such as washing machines and cars.” – bto: Letztlich ist ein Kind auch ein unumkehrbares finanzielles Commitment in erheblicher Höhe und langer Dauer.
- “If economists did begin to take note, it would not be the first time unusual gauges of economic performance had been proposed. As long ago as the 1920s, it was suggested that the length of women’s skirts tracked stock market performance — rising and falling in tandem. Estée Lauder chairman Leonard Lauder proposed a lipstick index in 2001, claiming that purchases of cosmetics were inversely correlated with the health of the economy. The idea was later discredited. The 2008 recession gave rise to the tie index, sales of which, it was claimed, rise as employees fear for their jobs. Alan Greenspan, the former head of the US Federal Reserve, used to track sales of men’s underwear, which he said fell at the onset of recessions as men — and their partners on their behalf — delayed buying new underwear during tough economic times.” – bto: Ja, es gibt eine Reihe möglicher Indikatoren. Bei den Rocklängen ging es um die „Risikobereitschaft“ der Frauen, die in einem guten ökonomischen Umfeld eher ihre Attraktivität betonen.
Wie dem auch sei: Zurzeit sinkt die Zahl der Schwangerschaften deutlich:
Quelle: FT
