Schulden, Schulden, Schulden
Die Auswirkungen der Aktienrückkäufe habe ich heute Morgen erläutert. Hier noch mal die Dimensionen der Unternehmensverschuldung in den USA. Zerohedge.com kommentiert ein paar Charts:
- “(…) according to Goldman, stock buybacks and dividend payments – a main reason for future S&P 500 upside – are now expected to account for a whopping 48% of total shareholder payouts in 2017, representing 48% of the total cash spent by S&P500 firms in the next year, and the most since 2007.Buybacks alone are expected to amount to 30% of this $2.6 trllion in cash outlays (boosted by Trump’s ‚repatriation tax holiday‘) or a massive $780 billion, an increase of 30% compared to 2016.” – bto: Das sind erschreckende Zahlen. Das viele Geld der Fed dient nicht zu Investitionen in der Realwirtschaft, sondern nur zur Finanzierung von Financial Engineering zugunsten der Finanzwelt. Von Bankern bis zu CEOs. Weshalb die Unternehmen Geld, das sie aus dem Ausland im Zuge einer “Steueramnestie” von Trump zurückholen, ebenfalls mehr für Aktionäre ausgeben dürften, als für Investitionen. Oder eben für die Tilgung von Schulden.
Quelle: Goldman, Zero Hedge
- “Goldman explicitly called the upcoming debt-funded stock repurchasing frenzy, one set to match the highet on record, a bubble:
- Aggregate leverage currently sits at 1.7x, but if we normalize EBITDA, it is closer to 2.0x (ex-energy), which is a level typically associated with high yield credit. With corporate borrowing costs still near the lowest levels on record (despite the recent move up in interest rates), we think the market has been relatively sanguine about the risks associated with the build-up of debt.
- Companies paid out 145% of their net income in 2015 (nearly double 2010’s levels) while asset age on a median basis has increased to over 7 years and leverage has nearly doubled.” – bto: Wahnsinn! Das ist schlecht für die Realwirtschaft und die Unternehmen und hat nichts mit echter Wertschaffung zu tun.
Quelle: Goldman, Zerohedge
- “However, the one bullet which in a time when rates are again expected to rise sharply, is the most critical of all, was the following:
- Corporate debt levels have more than doubled since 2007 and 2016 is on pace for another record year of Investment Grade issuance. Interest expense is up a more modest 40% as the cost of debt has fallen from near 6% to less than 5% at the end of 2015.“ – bto: Danke an die Notenbanken, die hier geholfen haben.
Quelle: Goldman, Zero Hedge
- “The chart above shows that – at the croporate level – the biggest risk is that interest expense payments, shown by the gray line which is a function of the average interest rate, jumps sharply as it catches up to the dark blue line, the relentless, record increase in total debt, which has been the biggest catalyst for both the historic increase in stock buybacks and, by implication, the record level in the S&P 500.” – bto: Deshalb werden sie nur kurz steigen und danach deutlich sinken, um den Schaden zu begrenzen. Bis zum nächsten Mal.
bto: Deutlicher kann man nicht zusammenfassen, was in der Wirtschaft und an den Märkten falsch läuft.
→ Zero Hedge: “What ‚The Worst Bond Rout In 15 Years‘ Means For Stocks”, 19. November 2016
