STICHWORTE: • •von

Nachtrag zu Katalonien

Heute Morgen habe ich an dieser Stelle eine Sicht eines Insiders auf die Lage in Katalonien gebracht. Eines Insiders, der die Autonomiebestrebungen kritisch sieht. Ich selber habe dazu – was sicherlich auf dieser Seite selten ist – keine Meinung. Ich kenne die Lage vor Ort nicht. Interessant finde ich den Blick auf die wirtschaftlichen Folgen und vor allem den Irrtum der spanischen Seite mit Blick auf diese. Auch die EU spielt keine rühmliche Rolle und Ambroise Evans-Pritchard hat sicherlich recht, wenn er der EU zweierlei Maß vorhält:

  • “As matters stand, the Catalans are embarked on a course that will lead to their expulsion from the euro and the closure of their economic borders, for that is what the Spanish government has vowed to do – what the EU has endorsed, thinking that its dangerous bluff will never be called.” – bto: In der Tat finde ich, dass die EU sich und uns hier keinen Gefallen tut.
  • “We have seen a pattern of asymmetry in the way Brussels intrudes into the internal affairs of member states. It has repeatedly berated – and threatened – the eurosceptic governments of Poland and Hungary over the rule of law.” – bto: Nun kann man vielleicht die Dinge nicht einfach so vergleichen, aber es ist nicht ganz falsch.
  • “Frans Timmermans, the Commission’s vice-president, crossed the Rubicon by backing the actions of Guardia Civil on Sunday. (…) he endorsed a decision to storm voting centres and to bludgeon Catalan citizens who were trying to vote – rightly or wrongly, but peacefully and in good faith.” – bto: Ich denke auch, dass es nicht das richtige Vorgehen ist.
  • “The violence almost certainly breaches  multiple clauses of the EU’s Charter of Fundamental Rights but as I always feared would happen, the EU uses the Charter selectively, when it serves the interests of the European Project. (…) If its iron-fist apologia for violence causes the country to spin into insurgency and counter-insurgency, the EU owns the outcome.” – bto: Es enttäuscht mich auch. Ich hätte es anders gemacht an Stelle der EU.
  • “Much inks has been spilt on a Credit Suisse report warning of a 20pc crash in output – for the Catalans. Finance minister Luis de Guindos says the secessionist state would suffer ‚brutal pauperisation‘, a collapse in GDP of 25pc to 30pc, and a devaluation of up to 50pc. Spain would miraculously come through just fine.” – bto: Das ist natürlich lachhaft!
  • “Investors are fleeing Catalan debt, driving up yields on 2018 bonds threefold since late June to 2.6pc, but yields on equivalent Spanish Bonds have scarcely moved.” – bto: weil die Märkte denken, es sei ein lokales Problem, das es ohnehin nicht gäbe. Das geht nur, wenn
  • “This all plays to the comforting narrative that economic dangers are largely confined to the rebels. This is self-evidently absurd. Catalonia makes of a fifth of Spanish GDP. It is a hub of dynamism with a per capita income higher than the EU average. It is structural net contributor to the Spanish treasury, even though its finances are a mess.” – bto: was zeigt, warum es keinen Austritt geben darf. Dennoch ist das Vorgehen höchst problematisch.
  • “If Catalonia were quarantined and reduced to ‘brutal pauperisation’ as Mr de Guindos suggests, Spain itself would slide towards bankruptcy. Its public debt ratio would jump instantly to 120pc of GDP. The economy would collapse into a pan-Iberian depression. The budget deficit would jump to double-digit levels. Those Spanish banks holding €215bn (£190bn) of Spanish public debt would be engulfed by our old friend the ‘doom-loop’.” – bto: was, wenn man konsistent denkt, natürlich für die Position von Madrid und Brüssel spricht.
  • “It would be impossible for the ECB to shore up the system through QE alone. The only way to avoid a Spanish default would be to activate the bail-out mechanism (OMT), but this would entail tough terms and a vote in the German Bundestag. By then, a fresh eurozone crisis would be raging.” – bto: was a) nochmals die Position von der Kommission erklärt, b) nur einer der möglichen Auslöser für die Fortsetzung der Eurokrise wäre (beendet ist sie ja noch lange nicht).
  • “It should be obvious that matters have moved beyond ‚farce‘. Whether you blame the headstrong Catalan leaders for charging ahead or blame the guerrilla campaign by Spain’s Partido Popular to roll back Catalonia’s devolution settlement, the fact is that 2.26m Catalans, with 90pc backing secession.” – bto: Die Ergebnisse sind hoch umstritten. Dennoch kann man nicht einfach darüber hinweggehen.
  • “Yes, the Catalans leaders are in breach of Spain’s constitution but elemental questions of national identity are always political. At a certain point it becomes an evasion to fall back on legalisms. Courts and constitutions are by nature the tools of the status quo, and constitutions can in any case be changed.” – bto: was aber mit Blick auf die ökonomischen Folgen für alle nicht sein kann.

Fazit AEP: “Brussels has given a green light and is totally complicit. Welcome to the Europe’s brave new world.“ – bto: Und das ist, was mich dann wirklich stört.

→ The Telegraph: “EU shows its moral character backing violence in Catalonia”, 4. Oktober 2017