Leveraged emerging market stocks hit the rocks
Die hohe Verschuldung der Unternehmen und vor allem auch die Verschuldung von Unternehmen aus den Schwellenländern in US-Dollar war immer wieder Thema bei bto. Steigen die Zinsen und der Dollar drohen angesichts 15 Billionen Dollar Schulden erhebliche Turbulenzen. Die Börsianer wittern das:
- “Shares of the most heavily indebted emerging marketcompanies have plunged in the past month, even as businesses with stronger balance sheets have held up well in the face of a rise in risk aversion.” – bto: was wir im letzten Jahr auch in den USA gesehen haben.
- “The growing bifurcation stands in sharp contrast to US markets, where heavily leveraged companies have performed at least as well as financially stronger firms in recent weeks.”– bto: Dies sagt aber nur, dass es in den Schwellenländern mehr vom Dollar als den Zinsen getrieben ist.
- “Since mid-March, emerging market companies with an interest coverage ratio of below one, meaning cash flow from underlying operations is less than their interest costs, have fallen 12.5 per centon average (…).” – bto: Das ist eine spürbare Korrektur.
- “Over the same period, EM companies with an interest coverage ratio of above fourhave dipped just 4.1 per cent, outperforming the wider MSCI Emerging Markets index, which has slipped 6.7 per cent.” – bto: zwei Ursachen: a) Verschuldung, b) zunehmende Risikoaversion im Markt.
Quelle: FT
- “The performance gap between more-leveraged and less-leveraged EM firms has widened significantly over the past month (…) It’s clearly the case that when you see [interest] rates rising, companies that are considered to be vulnerable to that tend to underperform.” – bto: Das zeigt aber auch, dass die Märkte am Ende doch noch funktionieren.
- “(…) a net $6bn being withdrawn from EM equities in the past three months. Total portfolio flows, taking into account bonds as well, turned negative in April for the first time since November 2016, (…) underlining a broader souring of sentiment towards the developing world.” – bto: Das kommt noch dazu. Die Investoren ziehen Geld ab!
- “Two factors help explain why heavily indebted US companies, which have underperformed those in better financial shape since the start of 2017, have held up better than their EM counterparts in recent weeks. (…) 20 per cent of the most leveraged US stocks are energy companies, which have benefited from the rise in oil prices. Secondly, the rise in the dollar does not harm heavily indebted US companies, assuming the bulk of their revenues are in dollars.” – bto: So ist es. Aber noch lange kein Zeichen der Entwarnung, stehen doch auch die US Märkte vor schweren Zeiten.
