“Investors in Europe should hunker down for trouble ahead”

Mohamed El-Erian war früher Chef-Investor von PIMCO und berät heute die Allianz. Immer wieder meldet er sich in der FINANCIAL TIMES (FT) zu Wort. Diesmal beschäftigt er sich mit den Börsen in Europa. Interessanterweise verkaufen Investoren zur Zeit europäische Aktienfonds in großem Umfang. Vielleicht haben die Kleininvestoren einen besseren Riecher als die großen, denn sonst wären die Börsen nicht so gut gelaufen in diesem Jahr. Doch nun zu El-Erian:

• “Last week saw European stocks and bonds add to what had been a profitable first half of the year. The Euro Stoxx 50 index of blue-chip companies rose 2 per cent, extending its 16 per cent gain from January to June. In fixed income, the benchmark 10-year German government bond rose too, bringing its year-to-date return to 6.5 per cent, while its Italian counterpart jumped 3 per cent for the week.” – bto: Alles steigt. Wir sind bereit, dem deutschen Staat Geld dafür zu bezahlen, dass er unser Geld nimmt und kaufen Aktien zu immer höheren Kursen.
• “(…) this came in a week where data releases pointed to more weakness in European economic activity. June’s purchasing managers’ indices, for example, signalled further manufacturing contraction across much of the eurozone. The particularly weak reading for Germany was amplified by a 9 per cent annual fall in factory orders. Measures of inflation expectations took another leg down.” – bto: Wir marschieren fest in das japanische Szenario und feiern dies mit steigenden Börsen. Schon komisch.
• “This stark contrast between higher risk asset prices and poorer economic prospects reflects expectations that the European Central Bank will be injecting more liquidity into the system. (…) European interest rates are not just historically low but have moved negative in many of the region’s bond markets. Just last week, the German 10-year yield touched a historical low of minus 0.4 per cent, dragging other maturities down with it.” – bto: Ja, man kann es nicht anders sagen, es ist eine nicht nachhaltige Kombination. Es ist nur damit zu erklären, dass die Märkte auf die Monetarisierung der Schulden durch die EZB setzen. Deshalb kaufen sie die Anleihen mit Blick darauf, sie mit Gewinn an die EZB weiterzugeben.
• “While few economists expect the fall in interest rates to stimulate growth, the stock markets’ focus is elsewhere. With lower rates as inputs, traditional equity valuation models flash a brighter green or, at least, less yellow or red. Investors feel comfortable taking more risks when backed by central banks providing ample and predictable liquidity. This compounds the ‘reach-for-yield’ phenomenon as lower expected returns from higher quality fixed-income assets push investors to venture deeper into more risky, less familiar, and more illiquid areas of the market.” – bto: Das alles klingt auch nicht besonders clever. Es ist ein viel zu einfaches Spiel. Kaufen, nur weil es mehr Liquidität gibt, ist keine Strategie.
• “But what may be good for investment returns in the short run heightens the risk of future economic and financial weakness. (…) Rather than seeing a pick-up in economic activity, the continent is being threatened by what has become known as ‘Japanification’: a mix of low yields, sluggish growth, low inflationary expectations and greater worries about the ineffectiveness of policymakers’ dwindling tool kits.” – bto: So ist es und die politischen Spannungen werden deutlich zunehmen.
• “At the same time, the risks to medium-term financial stability multiply, due to the gap between elevated asset prices and more sluggish economic fundamentals, and excessive risk-taking in both the investor and debt-issuing communities. The longer this continues, the greater the probability of that dreadful combination of falling asset prices, credit rationing, strained liquidity and obstacles to repositioning investment portfolios and debt structures — all of which would spill back into even weaker growth.” – bto: Dazu packen wir noch den Glauben, wir könnten allein das Klima retten und die ungedeckten Versprechen für die alternde Bevölkerung sowie die Tendenz zu Planwirtschaft (nationale Champions) und Sozialismus (Enteignung, Mietendeckel).
• “Long-term European investors should therefore take advantage of the liquidity-driven surges in asset prices to bolster low cash positions, not only to reduce overall risk but to give themselves dry powder to take advantage of dislocations that tend to damage markets in an indiscriminate fashion. They should also trade up in quality in corporate and sovereign holdings by focusing on issuers with stronger balance sheets and more diversified business models, while shifting from passively to actively-managed strategies for exposures to less liquid market segments. Finally, they should diversify some of their European investments to other jurisdictions with stronger fundamentals (…)” – bto: und besseren Politikern! Vor allem in Gegenden, in denen Eigentum geschützt bleibt. Es braut sich ein schweres Szenario zusammen. Fügen wir die Probleme der Migration hinzu, laufen wir Gefahr, einen Zerfall der Gesellschaften zu erleben.