Die nächste Phase der Krise wird ein soziales Desaster
Zum Zirkus gehören auch die Zuschauer. Deshalb ist es wichtig, dass die Medien auch ausgiebig aus Davos berichten. Dabei gibt es natürlich auch das eine oder andere Interessante; in diesem konkreten Beispiel nicht so sehr, was gesagt wird, sondern wer es sagt. So berichtet der Telegraph von den Äußerungen von Axel Weber (ehemaliger Bundesbank-Chef und jetzt Chairman der UBS) und Ray Dalio (Hedgefonds-Milliardär, hier schon mehrfach zitiert. Immer sehenswert: → “How the economic machine works” ).
Beide zeigen sich besorgt mit Blick auf den Zustand des Weltfinanzsystems:
- “‚We’re moving into difficult territory. Inflation could be the big surprise of this year,‘ said Axel Weber, chairman of UBS and former head of the Bundesbank. Mr Weber said central banks are coping with the aftermath of an unprecedented monetary experiment that they do not fully understand – whatever they assert publicly – and the reversal of emergency policies may prove much harder to handle than supposed. ‚At some point the inflexion point will come,‘ he said (…).” – bto: eine Aussage, die man ernst nehmen muss und die zeigt, wie fragil das Welt-Finanzsystem ist.
- “Ray Dalio, the founder of Bridgewater, said a surprise surge in rates at this late stage of the cycle would puncture the boom and set off an abrupt repricing of the global asset universe. (…) ‚The sensitivity to a rate change is greater than before. It is very high,‘ he said, warning that the US is hitting capacity constraints and risks overheating. The Trump tax cuts and spending plans are further juicing the economy at the wrong moment. ‚A weaker dollar at this time adds more stimulus. We’re adding stimulus on stimulus,‘ he said.” – bto: Es ist schon so, wie ich vor der US-Wahl vorhergesagt habe. Trump will die USA aus der Eiszeit bomben, koste es, was es wolle.
- “Quantitative easing lifted the economy through a different mechanism, by boosting financial markets – a wealth effect from gains in equities, bonds and property. People have been lulled into complacency, forgetting what will happen when normal conditions return. ‚We’re now switching back on the credit and interest rate channel. I would not be sure that central banks can manage this,‘ sagte Weber. – bto: Ich denke auch, dass wir diesmal im Markt spielen, “this time it is different, the central banks” retten alle.
- “Mr Weber flagged concerns that the international dollar swap lines used by central banks to prevent a financial collapse in 2008 and 2009 may not be so freely available when the next downturn hits. ‚Central banks really need to think about this,‘ he said.” – bto: auch, weil u. U. eine protektionistischere US-Regierung gegen die Hilfe wäre.
- “The worry is that global debt levels have jumped by 51 percentage points to a record 327pc of GDP since the Lehman Brothers crisis, so the system is essentially more fragile, even if banks are supposedly safer. ‚The real issue is how we are going to end this cycle. Can we have a soft landing?‘ asked Min Zhu, the former deputy chief of the IMF and the People’s Bank of China.” – bto: Auf jeden Fall sollten wir es uns wünschen!
- “Mr Dalio summed up the pervasive worry of Davos veterans as the global expansion nears old age: the authorities have run out of monetary and fiscal ammunition if anything now goes wrong, and the fragile societies may start to crack in another economic downturn. ‚It won’t be a pretty picture,‘ he said.” – bto: Das ist auch meine Sorge. Mehr als vor allen finanziellen Erschütterungen stehen wir vor einem sozialen Schock ungeahnten Umfangs.
→ The Telegraph: “Inflation shock is a mounting danger, warn finance chiefs in Davos”, 26. Januar 2018
