Inflation: Es geht nur mit fallenden Asset-Preisen
Es wird immer offener ausgesprochen, was Sache ist: Die Party ist zu Ende, die Notenbanken müssen sie beenden, ob sie nun wollen oder nicht, droht doch sonst die Kernschmelze des FIAT-Geldsystems durch Vertrauensverlust. Es sei höchste Zeit, meint die FINANCIAL TIMES (FT), den Bürgern die Wahrheit zu sagen:
- “(…) the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (…) has often been an unlikely harbinger of bigger global trends. In the late 20th century, for instance, the RBNZ pioneered inflation targeting. More recently, it embraced climate reporting ahead of most peers. Last year, it started tightening policy before most counterparts. And this week it went further: its latest financial stability report warns of a ‘plausible’ chance of a ‘disorderly’ decline in house prices, as the era of free money ends.” – bto: Dazu muss man nun wirklich kein Nobelpreisträger sein. Natürlich kommen Vermögenspreise unter Druck, wenn Geld plötzlich wieder einen Preis hat.
- “(…) the Kiwi central bankers know they have an asset bubble on their hands, since property prices have jumped 45 per cent higher in the last two years and ‘are still estimated to be above sustainable levels’. This reflects both ultra-low rates and dismally bad domestic housing policies. And it is now telling the public and politicians that this bubble needs to deflate, hopefully smoothly.” – bto: Es kann Blasen geben, die nicht so gut zu sehen sind. Man denke an die Staatsschulden.
- “(…) Powell did not do was discuss asset prices — let alone admit that these have recently been so inflated by cheap money that they are likely to fall as policy shifts. (…) there is no sign of any fall in American property prices right now. On the contrary, the Case-Shiller index of home prices is 34 per cent higher than it was two years ago, according to the most recent (February) data. However, it beggars belief that Powell could crush consumer price inflation while leaving asset prices intact. After all, one key factor that has raised these prices to elevated levels is that the Federal Reserve’s $9tn balance sheet almost doubled during the COVID-19 pandemic (and has expanded it nine-fold since 2008.)” – bto: Es gibt schöne Charts, die eine Korrelation zwischen der Bilanz und dem S&P 500 zeigen.
- “(The Fed) pledged to start trimming its holdings of mortgages and treasuries by $47.5bn each month, starting in June — and accelerate this to a $90bn monthly reduction from September. According to calculations by Bank of America, this implies a $3tn balance sheet shrinkage (quantitative tightening, in other words) over the next three years. And it is highly unlikely that the impact of this is priced in. After all, QT on this scale has never occurred before, which means that neither Fed officials nor market analysts really know what to expect in advance. Or as Matt King, an analyst at Citibank, observes: ‘The reality is that tightening hasn’t really started yet.’” – bto: Das gilt erst recht für Europa, wo die EZB immer noch glaubt, die Inflation aussitzen zu können.
- “(…) the reason why plain speaking is needed is that a dozen years of ultra-loose policy has left many investors (and households) addicted to free money, and acting as if this is permanent. Moreover, since the Fed has repeatedly rescued investors from a rapid asset price correction in recent years — most recently in 2020 — many investors have an innate assumption that there is a Fed ‘put’. So if Powell truly wants to emulate his hero Volcker, and take tough measures for long-term economic health, he should take a leaf from the Kiwi book, and tell the American public and politicians that many asset prices have been pumped unsustainably high by free money.” – bto: In der Eurozone gehört dazu auch, den Politikern zu sagen: Wir können euch nicht dauerhaft finanzieren. Deshalb bringt euer Haus in Ordnung und vor allem saniert den Euro. Aber es ist unwahrscheinlich, dass das passiert.
→ft.com (Anmeldung erforderlich): „The Fed owes the American people some plain-speaking“, 5. Mai 2022
