In Wahrheit sind die Bilanzen der US-Unternehmen noch viel schlechter

• “SocGen’s Andrew Lapthorne explains not only why the true story of US corporate balance sheets is far worse than the average data makes it appears, but also why “US balance sheet performance is increasingly polarized”. As the SocGen strategist writes, ‚we have been highlighting for some time now the risks associated with highly leveraged US companies, particularly among the smaller capitalisation names. Our message has been clear; US corporate leverage is abnormally high for this stage in the cycle and a handful of cash-rich mega caps are masking significant problems elsewhere.‘” – bto: Klartext: Der Durchschnitt sagt gar nichts aus, man muss sich den Median anschauen.
• “Lapthorne picks up on a point that was brought up by the IMF back in April, when it not only warned that over 20% of US corporations are at risk of default should rates rise even modestly,  but that the generous use of an average distribution when instead median is more appropriate, is masking some substantial problems below the surface, including the risks to US corporate from rising interest costs (…).” – bto: Natürlich kann es genau deshalb keinen Zinsanstieg geben. Korrigiere: “darf” – könnte ja sein, dass es dennoch einen gibt!
• “Lapthorne calculates that while on average interest cost as a % of EBIT remains very healthy (as you would expect with record low interest rates) ‚once you peel away the biggest and strongest US companies, the picture is entirely different.‘ As shown in the chart below, and as Lapthorne notes, ‚interest coverage for the smallest 50% of US companies is near record lows, at a time when interest costs are extremely depressed and when profits are at peak.‘” – bto: Wenn die kleinsten Unternehmen in Schwierigkeiten geraten, rettet die keine Regierung. Das dürfte aber dem Abschwung den Weg bereiten und eine Entwicklung in eine Schulden-Deflation begünstigen.
• Der Markt scheint das zu ahnen: “(…) over the last few weeks the beta of bad balance to good balance sheet companies has been negative. Or to put it more simply, one group has been going up whilst the other has been going down. For those still holding the weak companies, the relative performance consequence is painful, leading to further selling and further polarisation.”

Quelle: SocGen, Zero Hedge

“As Lapthorne concludes, ‚It is difficult to envisage a scenario in which this ends well.‘” – bto: Ja, kann ich mir auch nicht vorstellen!