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“How to pick a successful stockpicker”

Es ist allgemein bekannt, dass es nur wenigen Managern von Aktienfonds gelingt, den Index zu schlagen. Eine wichtige Voraussetzung ist ja, dass diese sich überhaupt trauen, deutlich vom Index abzuweichen. Eine neue Studie zeigt, wie es einigen für eine Zeit gelingt, den Markt zu schlagen:

  • “Inalytics, a consultancy founded by Mr Di Mascio in 1998, analyses every single trade carried out by its clients, forensically examining 400 portfolios each month. This database, which covers about 40 active managers, has registered about 290 basis points of outperformance annually (after fees), compared with the respective portfolios’ benchmarks over the past five years.” – bto: Das ist in der Tat eine gute Performance, wobei ich davon ausgehe, dass es sich auch um entsprechend große Portfolios handelt, also um eine sehr vermögende Kundschaft.
  • “‚I am strongly of the opinion that skill does exist in active management. There is an elite that do a fantastic job. In sports like tennis the average player is mediocre at best, but what about those that compete at Wimbledon? Just because the average fund manager loses money, net of fees, does not mean that there is no skill across the industry,‘ says Mr Di Mascio.” – bto: was natürlich unterstreicht, dass man auch über die ausreichenden Mittel verfügen muss. Alle anderen sollten beim Index bleiben.
  • Denn: “(…) even highly skilled managers deliver alpha in just 57 per cent of the months examined. ‚The margin between success and failure is very small,‘ says Mr Di Mascio. He adds that asset owners or investors increasingly want managers that can deploy skill in high conviction, highly concentrated portfolios holding as few as 15 stocks in a global equity portfolio.” – bto: Passt ja zu Warren Buffet, der mal meinte, man solle wenige Eier im Nest haben, auf diese aber entsprechend besser aufpassen.
  • “The increasing availability of low-cost smart beta strategies that provide exposure to known sources of higher returns, such as smaller companies or low volatility stocks, has increased the pressure on hedge fund managers to demonstrate that they can deliver true alpha — genuine skill in picking winners.” – bto: Auch das stimmt, denn es zeigt, dass in den Märkten Anomalien beseitigt werden, sobald mehr Leute diese identifizieren und entsprechend agieren.
  • “Vanguard, the world’s second largest fund house, has a long history of hiring third-party providers to run active equity strategies, which it oversees via a dedicated manager research team. Matt Piro, head of product in Europe for Vanguard, says data about individual portfolio managers, teams and entire organisations are being scrutinised in ways that were near impossible even as recently as five years ago, helping to inform more nuanced views. ‚There can be fundamental differences in the way that different portfolio managers think about holding periods. Portfolio managers also tend to think differently about sizing decisions. So it is important to customise each assessment to identify what makes that portfolio manager special‘ (…).” – bto: Es leuchtet ein, in Zeiten von Big Data auf solche Analyse zu setzen.
  • “(…) the best fund managers all share the same qualities — self-awareness, a drive to constantly learn, including from their mistakes, and an appetite to improve — which can be enhanced with the help of modern portfolio analysis techniques.” – bto: Hinzu kommt, denke ich, dass es immer nur wenige sein können, die eine Outperformance hinlegen.
  • “A stark warning for investors who still look at past performance Star fund managers that can deliver consistently superior investment returns are a rare species. Managers that work hard to gain prominence as skilled stockpickers often find their reputation in tatters when previously successful trading strategies no longer prove effective. Even the very best can struggle. Warren Buffett, who is widely regarded as the world’s most successful investor, has experienced multiple periods of underperformance over his long decades as chairman of Berkshire Hathaway.” – bto: was aber auch nur geht, wenn einem die Kapitalgeber die Treue halten. Dem ist aber immer seltener so. Buffet mag auch in dieser Hinsicht eine Ausnahme sein.
  • “S&P examined the performance of 1,455 US active equity funds over the five years since March 2013. Fewer than one in five funds that started in the best-performing quartile in March 2013 remained in the top group five years later. More than a quarter (25.8 per cent) of the best performers in March 2013 dropped into the worst-performing group over the same period. Similar trends were found when the funds were divided into size categories and over one and three-year time periods.” – bto: Das wirft im Klartext erneut die Frage auf, ob es sich lohnt, dafür Geld auszugeben.

→ ft.com (Anmeldung erforderlich): “How to pick a successful stockpicker”, 10. September 2018