Goldman: Die Turbulenzen bei italienischen Staatsanleihen sind erst der Anfang

Es ist Zeit, bei bto mal wieder über Italien zu sprechen. Ich bleibe diesbezüglich bei meiner immer wieder an dieser Stelle wiederholten Aussage:

Die neue italienische Regierung hat das eingeschlafene Thema wieder erweckt:

Nun beginnt langsam die Flucht aus italienischen Anleihen, und Goldman Sachs geht davon aus, dass das erst der Anfang ist. Via Zero Hedge:

“First, the planned fiscal expansion (…) is sizable enough to renew investor concerns about the long-term sustainability of Italy’s public debt stock, in large part owing to the expected deterioration in the country’s primary surplus. (…) cumulatively over the past eight years, the government primary surplus has reduced Italy’s debt-to-GDP ratio by approximately 11.5 percentage points. Positive growth and lower interest expenditures (compared with 2011-2013) have also supported the stabilization of the Italian debt level over the past few years (Exhibit 1). With a lower expected primarily surplus, higher funding costs and soft economic activity, considerations of long-term debt sustainability pose a challenge to forward debt/GDP dynamics, and have meant investors have required a higher risk premium on Italian government bonds.” – bto: Ja, allerdings war das Wachstum so schwach, dass es eben nur zu einer Stabilisierung, aber keiner Lösung geführt hat.

Quelle: Goldman Sachs, Zero Hedge

“Second, the increase in government funding needs stemming from a higher public deficit comes in conjunction with the slowdown and forthcoming end of the ECB’s net asset purchases. The’s ECB quantitative easing program initiated by the ECB in March 2015 is coming to an end this year. Since its initiation, the central bank has purchased €360bn-worth of Italian government bonds and we expect it to buy another €5.5bn in the last quarter of this year. From January 2019 onwards, Goldman expects new purchases to end and reinvestments of the Italian government bond portfolio to average EUR3-3.5bn/month in 2019 (Exhibit 2).” – bto: Immerhin gibt es noch Reinvestments. Aber auch so ist klar, dass die EZB eigentlich nicht aufhören dürfte.

Quelle: Goldman Sachs, Zero Hedge

“Over the past few years, ECB buying of medium-/long-term debt has allowed the Italian Treasury to increase the average life of government debt by approximately 0.5 years and to bring it back to levels seen before the global financial crisis. Despite an increased reliance on long term debt, the Italian Treasury has to roll over approximately EUR400bn in securities per year (including short-term securities). With ECB demand diminishing, the increase in supply to the private sector will likely represent an additional headwind to BTPs.” – bto: Nur was werden die anderen Euro-Länder sagen bzw. machen? Sie werden alles tun, um eine Krise zu verhindern.

Quelle: Goldman Sachs, Zero Hedge

“Third, heightened market volatility in recent months may have had lasting effects on BTP liquidity and market depth. In Exhibit 4, Goldman shows the average daily volumes of Italian government securities on cash secondary markets (M.T.S.) during April, May and June 2018. The volumes of BTPs exchanged in June, following the selloff of Italian bonds initiated at the end of May, have been almost one-third of those observed in April and May.” – bto: Wobei man auch sagen könnte, es gibt jetzt treuere Gläubiger, die weniger handeln. Also doch keine Panik?

Quelle: Goldman Sachs, Zero Hedge

“In light of these three factors: rising government debt, fading ECB support, and diminished market liquidity, in the short term Goldman expects the volatility of Italian government bonds to remain elevated: While the broader market seems to have partly moved on from Italy’s risk and international financial spillovers have been relatively muted thus far, we believe the current situation is an unstable equilibrium.” – bto: was dann doch für eine deutlichere Marktreaktion spricht.
“(…) a move through 300bp in spreads is possible and, if sustained, would likely require a policy change at the national or European level.” – bto: Das meint Goldman zurecht. Ich tippe auf einen typischen faulen Kompromiss in Brüssel. Schließlich sind nächstes Jahr Europawahlen!