Gefährlich: steigende Inflation und instabiles Finanzsystem
Die Notenbanken haben sich in eine Sackgasse manövriert. Sie haben das Schuldenmonster weiter gefüttert – aus Angst vor der Krise. So wurde es auf Dauer zur Krisenursache und hat damit die Banken erpresst. Solange dies nicht zu Inflation führte, war das kein Problem. Doch nun könnten wir beides bekommen: die Inflation und die Finanzkrisen:
- “(…) the central banks have been busy topping up the punch bowl through their continued bond purchases to keep interest rates low while conducting an interminable debate on when and how to remove support. Their protestations that the risk of inflation is ‘transitory’ look increasingly questionable.” – bto: Die Party an den Finanzmärkten war nur möglich mit der Flut an Liquidität, die die Notenbanken geschaffen haben.
- “There is a broad consensus that the original injections of liquidity after the 2008-09 financial crisis were invaluable in preventing a 1930s-style depression; likewise in preventing an economic catastrophe after the pandemic struck last year. Yet central bankers’ claims that QE would boost gross domestic product are less convincing.” – bto: Denn es sind die Impfungen und die Staatshilfen, die die Wirtschaft wieder vorangebracht haben.
- “In the meantime, unconventional monetary policy is creating ever greater balance sheet vulnerabilities.” – bto: nett formuliert. Wir haben es einfach mit hoher und steigender Verschuldung zu tun.
- Der entscheidende Punkt: “The overall public sector balance sheet, which includes central banks, is seeing a marked reduction in the maturity of debt. Under QE, the central bank creates money by crediting reserves to the private banks that are then used to finance the purchase of government bonds. In effect, the public sector liability of government bonds is replaced by the reserves created to finance their purchase.” – bto: Statt Anleihen zu halten, halten die Banken Einlagen bei den Notenbanken.
- “The effect on the profile of outstanding debt is dramatic. The Bank for International Settlements estimates that 15 to 45 per cent of all advanced economy sovereign debt is now, de facto, overnight. In the short run, that yields a net interest saving to governments. But their increased exposure to floating rates heightens vulnerability to rising interest rates.” – bto: Man könnte auch sagen, es sichert das gewünschte Verhalten der Notenbanken, nämlich die Zinsen tief zu halten.
- “In the advanced economies, the IMF estimates that the government debt-to-GDP ratio went from under 80 per cent in 2008 to 120 per cent in 2020. The interest bill on that debt nonetheless went down over the period, encouraging a Panglossian belief that the debt must be sustainable. A similar surge in the global non-financial corporate sector led to debt hitting a record high of 91 per cent of GDP in 2019. Against that background, investors’ search for yield has caused severe mispricing of risk, along with widespread misallocation of capital.” – bto: Außerdem führte es zu einem deutlichen Anstieg der Vermögenspreise und damit zu einer Diskussion über zunehmende Ungleichheit.
- “(…) the shape of the financial cycle may be changing. In the first four decades after the second world war, cycles peaked and recessions began when monetary policy was tightened to tackle mounting inflationary pressures. Thereafter, as inflation became quiescent, financial crises became the trigger for recessions. The trigger now may be a lethal combination of rising inflation and financial instability. The difficulty is that central banks cannot take away the punch bowl and raise rates without undermining weak balance sheets and taking a wrecking ball to the economy.” – bto: Darauf vertraut die Politik, die nun glaubt, es gäbe kein Problem mit Staatsschulden.
- “The temptation for policymakers is to muddle on and perpetuate the boom, bust and bailout cycle. That way ultimately lies the balance sheet recession — a downturn caused by debt burdens — to end all recessions.” – bto: Damit haben wir eine Krise, die nicht mehr kontrolliert werden kann.
- “The imperative should rather be to ensure that the post-pandemic debt splurge finds its way into productive investment along with planning debt reconstruction and the re-equitisation of the economy.” – bto: Das stimmt, ist aber nirgendwo in Sicht.
