Die Stimmung ist klar. Obwohl bei uns nun keine Rede davon sein kann, dass die Steuern und Abgaben zu tief sind, bestimmt der Ruf nach endlich höheren Steuern für die “Reichen” die Diskussion. Anderswo ist das nicht anders. Die FINANCIAL TIMES (FT) sieht so oder so schlechte Zeiten für Vermögende anbrechen:
- “There is a lot of evidence that people with money will have to give up a substantial part of their wealth over the coming years. Also, over time, younger working people will increase their share of income relative to retirees. And no, that does not depend on which party holds or loses a handful of seats in the US Congress. Or, for that matter, on who gets to write central bank policy announcements. The trend might run deeper and longer than that.” – bto: Und wir kennen sie: Demografie und Zinsen. Und natürlich Inflation.
- “Lately, I’ve been reading up on the historical record of post pandemic economies, and the relationship between population age distributions and inflation. All bad news for owners of capital. Last June, the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco put out a paper on ‘The Longer Run Economic Consequences of Pandemics’. The authors studied the rates of return on assets in the wake of 19 significant pandemics stretching back to the 14th century.” – bot: Die Vorversion war bereits im April 2020 bei bto und natürlich auch in “Coronomics”:
→ Die Lehren aus früheren Pandemien
- “You will earn nothing on your money after correcting for inflation and speculative excess. And then some of the profitless pile that remains will be taken away.” – bto: So gesehen kam die Pandemie gerade passend, denn die Ursachen liegen natürlich woanders.
- “(…) the SF Fed study authors say, ‘the textbook response is to either borrow to smooth the shock, or to pursue aggressive stimulative policy’. However, they add ‘the sustainability of such debt depends crucially on the type of economic disaster confronted’. So it would seem that instead of a postwar inflation, we could have post-pandemic downward pressure on interest rates and profits. Squinting at the charts, the study’s conclusions are, so far, consistent with what I have seen since the vaccines began to arrive late last year. Yes, there was an inflation scare in the bond market until late February, but that seems to have flattened out with copper and oil prices. Western governments have issued a lot of debt, but that appears to have met with a high level of precautionary savings. The banking system seems better set up to buy US Treasury debt than make new loans.” – bto: was eben kein Boom verspricht, sondern eine Rückkehr zur deflationären Grundtendenz.
- “I’ve been reviewing a 2018 Bank for International Settlements paper called ‘The Enduring Link Between Demography and Inflation”. According to authors Mikael Juselius and Elod Takats, “our findings suggest that the deflationary effect the age structure has had on inflation for the past four decades will reverse over the coming decades and become inflationary. Briefly, the authors find that inflation increases in a population with a rising proportion of dependants (such as children and retirees) and decreases with a rising proportion of working people.” – bto: Das kennen wir auch vom Great Demographic Reversal.
- “The politics of stimulus should be seen as a form of theatre, not plans for the economic future.” – bto: Ja, aber bezahlen müssen wir dennoch dafür.