Felix Zulauf über die Märkte
Investmentlegende Felix Zulauf hatte ich schon bei bto:
→ Zulauf: Frau Merkel verantwortet eine Katastrophe für die nachfolgende Generation
→ Recht hat er: „Sünden haben Folgen“
Auch für meine Piketty-Kritik „Die Schulden im 21. Jahrhundert“ gab er ein Endorsement.
Hier äußert er sich im Gespräch mit Barron’s:
- “Barron’s: (…) We’ll get through the pandemic, but how will we exit this era of chronically low interest rates? – I don’t think we can. Once you start debasing your currency and inflating your financial system constantly and chronically, you can’t stop. If you do, you risk a deflationary accident. The problem today is that the world doesn’t have enough growth. Demographics are one cause; annual population growth in the U.S. is about half a percentage point, and declining. It is near zero percent in Europe, and declining. It is zero in China, and declining, and negative in Japan. Economic growth equals population growth plus productivity growth, and productivity growth trends are also declining because policies being applied in many parts of the world are creating more zombie companies. The U.S. economy is destined to grow by probably less than 2% a year on a long-term trend basis, and Europe, by less than 1%. But our system is built on growth.” – bto: Wie wir gesehen haben, ist es nicht nur darauf gebaut, sondern davon abhängig!
- “We need to grow to service our debts, cover our pension costs, and so forth. The central banks have been trying to create growth since the financial crisis of 2008-09 by pumping liquidity into the global economy. But it got stuck in the financial system and didn’t make it to Main Street. Now, the authorities have turned to fiscal expansion. Governments around the world are talking about investing massive amounts of money in infrastructure, and particularly in climate change. In this way, they hope to create enough demand to elevate economic growth rates. It will work for a very short time. Coming out of a crisis, there is usually pent-up demand. All the spending might lift growth by 4% or 5% for a few quarters, but afterward, growth will ebb again unless the fiscal push increases.” – bto: Ich denke, das wird er. Sie werden alles tun, um eine Runde weiter zu kommen.
- “The government share of the economy will continue to rise. The more government is involved in the economy, the less productive and efficient the economy becomes. If productivity falls, prosperity declines. An ever-larger percentage of the population falls into poverty or near-poverty, and society takes on a bigger role in caring for those people. We are slipping into planned economies and greater socialism.” – bto: Genau diesen Weg sind wir in Europa schon sehr weit gegangen.
- “Longer term, the current economic framework will lead to social conflict, played out against the background of a conflict of a hegemon in relative decline—the U.S.—and a new power that is rising and self-confident: China.” – bto: Das nehmen wir wahr, wobei die Demografie für die USA besser aussieht.
- “Imbalances exist within the EU because some economies are more competitive than others. To rebalance the imbalances, the EU has weakened the stronger members; it hasn’t strengthened the weaker members. Europe will continue to integrate, and economic growth and prosperity will continue to decline. Far in the future, there will be a major revolt of the people against the elites. Don’t count on Europe to launch any big growth agenda. It won’t work.” – bto: Wie sollte es auch funktionieren, wenn es um die Verteilung eines immer kleineren Kuchens geht?
- “As yields rise, the valuations of growth stocks could fall. Later this year, perhaps from late summer onward, growth stocks will be in high-risk territory. The U.S. stock market could have a temporary correction in March, caused by a rise in yields. If that correction is shallow, the chance of a late-summer buying climax in the big growth stocks is high. If the correction is deeper, a cyclical top for these stocks will be postponed into the first half of 2022. But monetary policy won’t be tightened, and economic growth won’t collapse. Thus, we don’t have the classic factors that usually create a bear market.” – bto: Wir bekommen also noch weitere schlechte Medizin und die Märkte feiern das …
- “The most attractive assets are long-duration assets: the shares of companies that can achieve sales and earnings growth even in difficult economic and political environments, and real assets. (…) I like the agriculture theme. Jim Rogers said years ago at a Barron’s Roundtable that farmers were aging, and there weren’t new farmers taking their place. We have fewer farms in the world today, and they have to produce more, for more people. (…) I am also quite bullish on oil. The U.S. dollar probably has about 30% downside over the next five years. That is bullish for commodities in general, which are traded in U.S. dollars. I could see West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. benchmark crude, trading at $100 a barrel in four years, because the Biden administration’s policies are against drilling for new oil.” – bto: Generell wird nicht mehr ausreichend in die Förderung von Öl investiert.
- “I am long Japan, Taiwan, and Korea. Taiwan and Korea are my favorite markets because of their technology tilt. (…) Gold is dead money this year, but I like it longer term because of the crazy policy moves we’re making. Millennials are buying Bitcoin instead of gold. Whenever there is a selloff [in gold], I snap up some gold-mining stocks, as they are cheap long-term options on the gold price. The GDX [ VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ] should do well over the next few years.” – bto: Wenn man steigende Rohstoffpreise und einen schwächeren Dollar sieht, leuchtet das ein.
- “I don’t believe that Bitcoin will ever make it as money used in daily payments. It is too complicated, the price is too volatile, and “mining” it requires too much energy. But as long as people think of Bitcoin as a safe store of value, the price could go higher, and it could become a mania. At the peak of the tulip-bulb mania [in the 1630s], the most expensive tulip bulb cost as much as a house. That suggests Bitcoin could reach $1 million someday. But tulip bulbs trade today at only $10 a dozen.” – bto: Was für eine Aussicht!
