“Fears of QE-forever cycle turns spotlight on interest rate hedging”
Zunehmend herrscht Konsens – auch bei mir, dass wir in der Politik billigen Geldes gefangen sind und – wenn überhaupt – nur noch aggressivere Maßnahmen zur Stabilisierung des Systems vor uns liegen. “QE für immer” ist das Motto und erstaunlicherweise gibt es immer mehr Ökonomen, die darin gar kein Problem sehen. Nach dem Motto: Inflation ist tot und das Vertrauen in Geld unendlich.
Was das bedeutet, diskutiert die FINANCIAL TIMES (FT) in einem interessanten Beitrag:
- “Negative rates are back in the news, currently accounting for 11 per cent of global outstanding debt, (…) Falling rates in this decade have proved the Achilles heel of DB plans, holding more than half the retirement assets in the developed world.” – bto: “DB” steht für “Defined Benefit”, also eine feststehende Verpflichtung für den Versicherer/Pensionsfonds/Arbeitgeber in Zukunft eine bestimmte Zahlung zu leisten. Doch wenn man mit der Anlage von Geld kein Geld mehr verdienen kann, ist das ein erhebliches Problem!
- “The reason is that, in the investment universe, interest rate risk carries no reward — only a double whammy. Falling rates mean lower cash flows, as plans typically rely on bonds to fund regular payouts to their retirees. To cover the resulting shortfall, they have to invest even more. Falling rates also inflate the present value of plans’ future liabilities, (…) As a rule of thumb, a 1 per cent fall in rates delivers a 20 per cent rise in pension liabilities and a 10 per cent fall in the funding ratio — a measure of a plan’s ability to meet its future commitments.” – bto: wobei wir hier ja schon sehr weit “gekommen sind” bei dem Zinsniveau.
- “Currently, just over half of DB plans have a hedge against falling rates. The holdouts, on the other hand, have hitherto believed that rates are at their all-time lows in almost all pension markets and are overdue for a rise. (…) Having taken all the pain when rates were falling, the holdouts did not want to miss out on the upsides when the rate-hiking cycle finally started.” – bto: was auch bedeutet, dass die nicht verstanden haben, in welchem Umfeld wir uns befinden. Es gibt nur den Weg in immer tiefere Zinsen.
- “Now, they are not so sure, due to two worries, one immediate and one distant. The immediate one is the Fed’s recent decision to shift its rate cycle into lower gear. (…) The decision showed that asset prices are now both the result of monetary action and a factor influencing it. The implied circularity is great when markets are buoyant but painful when they reverse. What was once a medicine has turned into a drug.” – bto: So ist es. Und das ist eine Droge, die in immer höheren Maße abhängig macht.
- “The more distant worry for DB plans is mounting global debt, now at $184tn, equivalent to 225 per cent of global economic output, (…) By definition, debt means consumption brought forward. Its repayment will remain a big drag on global growth. Interest rates have to remain lower for much longer to stave off bankruptcies among zombie borrowers and companies that face liquidity risk as their debt matures.” – bto: genau das, was man schon seit Jahren sehen konnte und musste, gerade, wenn man Anlegergelder verwaltet.
- “Global growth has become overly debt-addicted. This raises the spectre of a QE-forever cycle. History shows that debt crises never have a good ending, while taking decades to unwind after numerous twists and turns. (…) the ‚Japanification‘ of the EU economy where QE has struggled to reboot its spluttering growth engine. Pension plans find themselves in an invidious position on interest rate hedging: damned if they do and damned if they don’t.” – bto: Sie müssen sich rein machen und die Zusagen kürzen.
