“Dr. Doom”: Italien ist pleite

• “‚I am very worried about the new Italian government. Things are going to worsen and the debt dynamics may become unsustainable,‘ Professor Nouriel Roubini said. ‚We’re in a very dangerous situation,‘ he continued, speaking at the Ambrosetti forum on world economics and geopolitics at Lake Como.” – bto: Für diese Erkenntnis muss man allerdings auch kein Professor sein …
• “Professor Roubini said the European Central Bank will be halting quantitative easing by the end of the year, removing a crucial buyer of Italian bonds. This comes at a time when US rates are ratcheting up fast and the era of abundant liquidity is coming to an end. ‚They have promised the moon and even if they only do a fraction of what they say, risk spreads will rise and eventually there will be a reckoning,‘ he said, warning that any Italian crisis would pose a systemic threat to the eurozone itself.” – bto: Darum geht es letztlich. Italien zeigt (erneut), dass das politische Konstrukt Euro nicht funktionieren kann.
• “Prof Roubini (…) said Donald Trump’s enormous fiscal blitz and his $1 trillion (£772bn) deficits at the top of the economic cycle had bought a short-term boom – at great long-term cost – but it is a sugar rush effect. Asset markets will roll over next year and the US economy itself will hit the wall in 2020, with global consequences.” – bto: Ich denke, dass China uns viel eher Probleme bereiten wird.
• “Meanwhile the US Federal Reserve will be tightening hard to head off incipient inflation, pushing up the Fed Funds rate rapidly to 3.5pc. This is a disaster in the making for emerging markets with large dollar debts and already under severe stress. The ECB and the Bank of Japan are effectively holding down US long-term rates at the moment through globalised QE but this too is coming to an end. ‚It is going to push US bond yields and tighten financial conditions,‘ he said.” – bto: Wir haben einen Rückgang der globalen Überschussliquidität. Und damit braut sich an den Finanzmärkten und in der Realwirtschaft etwas zusammen.
• “Prof Roubini describes it as a ‚perfect storm‘ for the US, China, and emerging markets, with a fragile Europe caught in the violent crosswinds.” – bto: “fragil”, weil die EU auf ganzer Linie versagt hat, die Eurozone zu sanieren.

Und dann kommt eine Prognose, von der ich annehme und hoffe, dass sie nicht eintritt: “Such an outcome would be intolerable for President Trump. ‚So what is he going to do? He will attack the Fed. He will find a foreign policy crisis. He can’t attack China because it is too big, so he will attack Iran and that will lead to a stagflationary shock,‘ he said.”