Die Symbiose zwischen den USA und China ist am Ende
Lange Zeit gab es eine wirtschaftliche Symbiose zwischen den USA und China. Die Chinesen durften viel nach Amerika exportieren und haben ihre Währung gedrückt und dafür US-Dollar und US-Staatsanleihen gekauft. Damit trugen sie zu tiefen Zinsen in den USA bei und finanzierten ihren Hauptkunden – so wie auch wir unsere Kunden mitfinanzieren. Nun kommt diese Symbiose, an den Märkten “Chimerica” genannt zum Ende. Die FT zitiert Analysten der Deutschen Bank:
- “‚Chimerica‘ — the positive symbiotic relationship between the US and China — may be coming to an end. This is the take of Deutsche’s Alan Ruskin: ‚Historically when the USD was weak, Asian central banks limited their currency appreciation, by buying the USD, and the bond purchases indirectly protected the USD’s downside with US fixed income purchases. (…) In the ‘new anti-intervention world’, when the USD is weak, it will be prone to be associated with T. bond market weakness. (…) This is leading to a profound shift in Treasury supply & demand dynamics.‘” – bto: was eine sehr spannende Frage ist. Denn dann führen die gestiegenen Zinsen eventuell doch nicht zu einer Dollar-Rallye wie einige – auch ich – erwarten.
- “The global implications of this divorce are huge. Imagine a new Cold War, but one in which the two superpowers are economically the same size. Or, if you prefer an older analogy, imagine a rerun of the Anglo-German antagonism of the early 1900s, with America in the role of Britain, and China in the role of imperial Germany. This is a better analogy because it captures the fact that a high level of economic integration does not necessarily prevent the growth of strategic rivalry and, ultimately, conflict.” – bto: was aber kein gutes Investitionsumfeld ist.
- “We are a very long way from outright warfare, of course. The tectonic plates of geopolitics don’t move that fast. But the danger signs are there. In a succession of official and semi-official statements, Chinese spokesmen have signalled their interest in a substitute for the dollar in the form of International Monetary Fund Special Drawing Rights, or even gold. At the very least, a gradual increase in the share of euros and yen in Chinese reserves must surely be in the cards. But they could go further than that. It’s not impossible that, at some point within the next five to 10 years, the Chinese will feel ready to remove their capital controls and allow their own currency, the renminbi, to develop as a freely convertible international currency. At that point, the Chimerican marriage will be over.” – bto: Die Chinesen bereiten das doch schon vor. Öl wird in Renminbi gehandelt, die Goldreserven Chinas steigen, die Hongkonger Börse handelt demnächst im großen Stil Gold, welches den Ländern, die Öl nach China verkaufen, erlaubt, die Erlöse in Gold anzulegen. Da denke ich gerade auch an Russland. Der Währungsumbruch hat das Zeug, die Weltwirtschaft im Kern zu erschüttern.
→ ft.com: “Authers’ Note: The Chimerican Chimera”, 9. April 2018
