Die Sorglosigkeit angesichts Schulden und Blasen wird bitter enden
Die Börsen boomen, den Notenbanken sei dank. Egal, dass die realwirtschaftlichen Aussichten nicht so überwältigend sind. Blasen könnten es schon sein, nicht nur bei Einzelwerten, wie Forscher der ETH Zürich ermittelt haben, sondern in ganzen Märkten. US-Börse? Bondmarkt? So oder so würden platzende Blasen eine zusätzliche erhebliche Belastung für die in der Eiszeit gefangenen Wirtschaften Europas und der USA:
- “To paraphrase the 1930s poem by Pastor Martin Niemöller about the perils of complacency, first they came for the interest rates, but investors did nothing because they liked how the ever-declining rates kept lifting asset prices. Next, they came for the free markets, but investors did nothing because they loved how ‘Quantitative Easing’ kept lifting asset prices further still. Then came the war on cash, but investors did nothing because digital claims were so convenient.” – bto: Hinzu kommt dann noch der Herdentrieb, höflicher als “Momentum” umschrieben. Wir verstärken uns in diesem Verhalten auch noch. Die Folge können Blasen sein, wie ich auch hier diskutiert haben:
- “The warning signs have been growing in number and frequency. Yet for all the fretting about the trade wars, Cold War II, Brexit, Euro-fragility, populism, sky-rocketing debts, grossly underfunded pensions, social instability, and the slowing economy, the vast majority of investors remain confident that all these problems can and will be solved painlessly. If they thought otherwise, the S&P 500 would not be trading within 2.5% of its all-time high and the yield on the corporate junk bond index would not be hovering within 1% of its all-time low.” – bto: Oder die Investoren denken, eine weitere Runde der Illusionierung durch die Notenbanken funktioniert noch oder sie sehen schon die unweigerliche Monetarisierung, die uns alle retten wird …
- “(…) will always do «whatever it takes» to keep rates low and asset prices high? After all, Western governments have been at it for decades. Indeed, rates have been in a secular downtrend and assets in a secular uptrend for 37 years, since the early 1980s. In other words, no Western investor under the age of 75 has ever managed capital through a 1930s or a 1970s-style systemic crisis: the kind that can (and periodically does) ravage all financial assets simultaneously – stocks, bonds, levered real estate and even cash. And since the biggest lesson of history is that people do not learn its lessons, complacency continues to rule the day regardless of the facts.” – bto: Ich würde noch ergänzen, dass wir doch wissen, dass die Notenbanken eine Wiederholung der großen Depression und der Inflation der 1970er-Jahre verhindern können. O. k., Scherz! Ich denke, wir wollen es glauben und bisher lagen wir damit richtig. Persönlich bezweifle ich, dass die paar Leute in den Notenbanken wirklich so mächtig sind. Sie hatten bisher zwar Zeit gekauft, sich damit aber immer weiter in eine Ecke manövriert.
- “For one, both corporate debt to GDP and total global debt to GDP ratios now stand near or above record highs. Since excessive debt and leverage caused the crisis of 2008, why would a subsequent 50% increase in global debt and record leverage not be a problem? Out of necessity, the investment business has developed a nuanced view (…): Epic debt will bring a disaster someday but now is not that day.” – bto: Das stimmt. Die Hoffnung ist, wie bei den Politikern, das Problem dem Nachfolger zu hinterlassen.
- “Over $12 trillion of bonds trade with a ‘negative yield’ (a euphemism for a capital haircut) and the trend is gaining momentum. (…) ‘A history of interest rates’ by Sidney Homer and Richard Sylla covers four millennia of financial history but contains no mention of negative interest rates. Lack of precedent has not deterred the IMF from advocating ‘deeply negative’ rates as a way to fight the next recession (see here, here, here).” – bto: Es ist umso erstaunlicher, dass sich niemand so richtig darüber aufregt. Es scheint das Normalste zu sein.
- “(…) who would want to lose 5% or 6% annually? Wouldn’t most people empty their accounts and hoard cash? Not to worry, the IMF proposes to enforce deeply negative rates by making physical cash either unavailable or impractical and then imposing negative rates (capital haircuts) on the digitized assets trapped within the financial system. The thinking is that without access to physical monetary instruments, investors would have no way of escaping negative rates and would spend capital rather than have it expropriated. Spending would provide the stimulus for the recovery.” – bto: Ich denke, es könnte die Flucht aus dem System auf die Spitze treiben. Mit massiven Verwerfungen für die Realwirtschaft.
- “Finally, how about the fact that by 2029 all of the baby boomers, the largest and the longest-living generation in history, will be over 65 and eligible to collect promised, but largely unfunded, pensions and health benefits? (…) a certainty and there are only two ways to deal with it – either entitlement promises must be significantly reduced or the younger generations must pay much higher taxes to support the long-living boomers. Whatever happens, either option requires legislation and is fraught with materially adverse financial, social and political consequences.” – bto: Es wird zu zusätzlichen erheblichen Spannungen führen, die wiederum negativ auf das Wachstum und damit auf die Möglichkeiten, mit den Problemen umzugehen, rückwirken.
- “But how can investors be prepared for a financial crisis if they limit themselves to the instruments that depend on financial counterparties and markets? This is why the current bubble in complacency is so pernicious. It has left investors defenseless by instilling blind faith in the ability to hedge systemic risks with instruments that are vulnerable to the very risks they are supposed to hedge. This is akin to plugging one’s backup generator into the electric grid – it will work perfectly until the power cuts out, which is when one really needs a backup generator!” – bto: Das stimmt natürlich zu 100 Prozent, genauso wie die Schlussfolgerung, die er daraus zieht: “This brings us to physical gold – the only universally liquid financial asset that is cyber-immune and can be effectively custodied and negotiated without relying on financial institutions or markets.” – bto: So ist es, der einzige Wert, der alle Zeiten überdauert hat. Kein Wunder, dass auch hier die Einschränkungen beginnen, siehe die Überlegungen, anonymen Goldkauf zu unterbinden.
- “It is no accident that many central banks have been aggressively accumulating gold reserves. Who if not an arsonist would smell the smoke first? Russia and China have been the largest gold buyers for the same reasons all investors should hold physical gold reserves outside the financial system – independence from financial institutions and fiat currencies, cyber immunity, genuine scarcity, ready liquidity under any market conditions, invaluable buying power when others do not have it, and lack of the ultimate risk – permanent impairment.” – bto: Diese Länder legen ihr Auslandsvermögen zumindest intelligenter an.
- “(…) as Andrew Grove, the famous CEO of Intel, aptly put it: ‘Success breeds complacency. Complacency breeds failure. Only the paranoid survive.’ Is it better to risk ending up a confident pauper or to suffer the ridicule but ensure financial survival and independence? Now is not a moment too soon for everyone to make their own decision.” – bto: wobei man schon sagen muss, dass es noch weiter gut gehen kann und man sich über Mahner wie mich lustig macht …
