Die protektionistische Steuer droht die Regeln des Welthandels neu zu schreiben
In meinem Podcast vom kommenden Sonntag (21. November 2021) beschäftige ich mich mit intelligenter Klimapolitik. Im Zentrum der Diskussion: die sogenannte Grenzausgleichsabgabe, die die EU zum Schutz der eigenen Industrie (und zur Sicherung hoher Kosten für Bürger und Unternehmen) einführen möchte. Vorbereitend einige Beiträge. The Telegraph verweist auf die Risiken:
- „Carbon border taxes are one of those ideas that seem entirely logical, justified, even necessary, on paper, but would be highly problematic in practice. If you do not want to export pollution, then you do at some point have to consider a carbon border tax (…) If you’re going to have carbon taxes (…) and emissions trading, you can only really make sense of that with a carbon border tax.” – bto: Das stimmt, aber wie das wirkt, haben wir gestern bereits diskutiert.
- “As Britain raises its own climate ambition, but less stringent policies prevail elsewhere, there is a strong risk of so-called ‘carbon leakage’, or merely shifting emissions offshore and thereby seriously undermining British and global climate efforts.” – bto: Auch das stimmt, aber denken wir es auch mal umgekehrt. Die Briten nutzen ihre leeren Nordseefelder zur Lagerung von CO2 und haben so ihre Produktion grüner gemacht. Dennoch belegt die EU die Briten mit einem Zoll, weil das ja nicht zählt nach Auffassung der Ideologen. Was dann?
- “Carbon border taxes can suppress this effect by effectively equalising carbon prices for domestic and foreign producers in the home market.(…) Both the European Union and the United States have relatively well advanced plans for a carbon border tax. Quite a stink they are causing in the developing world too.” – bto: Die Entwicklungsländer sehen es als das, was es ist: Protektionismus.
- “The European Commission even has a published proposal on the table, scheduled to come into operation by the end of next year and initially targeted at a number of industries thought to be at high risk of carbon leakage – iron, steel, cement, fertiliser, aluminium and electricity generation. (…) it could potentially create big problems for the UK; British exports to the Continent might be penalised if Britain fails to keep up with Europe’s timeline.” – bto: Es ist eine sehr wichtige Frage, denn wie würde eine britische Regierung reagieren?
- “Research by the London School of Economics found that around one-third of the total value of all UK goods exported to the EU could be affected, entailing large financial transfers from the UK to the EU, potentially amounting to €1bn a year or more, with steel exports particularly badly hit.” – bto: Oder die Briten suchen sich neue Märkte. Vielleicht schaffen sie es gar, mit einem intelligenteren System Unternehmen aus der EU anzulocken.
- “Similar proposals have been put forward (…) in the US (…) To illustrate the practical difficulties, the Washington-based Brookings Institution cites the following example: ‘When a Ford is made in the United States, only 40pc of its parts are produced in the USA or Canada. The rest come from different countries around the world. Identifying the country of origin for millions of parts, and then verifying the true carbon content in each stage of processing, is a massive undertaking.’” – bto: Deshalb wird man pauschalisieren, was dann dazu führt, dass die Freihandelsordnung zusammenfällt.
- “Of course part of the point of a carbon border tax is that, like a nuclear deterrent, it’s not meant to be used. The purpose is to incentivise the developing world to comply with the climate change agenda, rather than penalise it for failing to.” – bto: Dafür sind die Pläne der EU – siehe gestern – durchaus ziemlich konkret.
- “But if it becomes merely another protectionist measure, then it will become a highly toxic and negative force, and we’ll move by default into a bifurcated world in which rich countries and poorer nations trade only among themselves. The climate change purpose will have got lost in the decoupling wash.” – bto: Genau das ist die Sorge der Entwicklungsländer.
