Die Illiquidität von Fonds als Problem
Können Märkte wirklich um 80 Prozent einbrechen, wie heute Morgen diskutiert? Sie können es, wenn es zu dem gefürchteten Margin Call kommt und die Liquidität weg ist. Wie ernst die Gefahr ist, zeigen Kommentare der Bank of England über die der Telegraph berichtet:
- “Blocking investors from withdrawing money from investment funds can stop a fire-sale of assets, but also encourage investors to dash for the exit in an effort to get out before the door is shut, a top Bank of England official has warned. If enough funds run into trouble in an ‘economic earthquake’ it raises the risk of funding for businesses drying up (…).” – bto: Und nicht nur das, es strahlt auf alle Vermögenswerte aus.
- “(…) such measures are a double-edged sword, (…) They can allow time for an orderly re-structuring of a fund, avoiding unnecessary fire sale pressure, but the expectation that such measures could be imposed tomorrow can create an incentive to be at the front of the redemption queue today.” – bto: Und vor allem kann es zwingen, andere Vermögenswerte zu verkaufen, wenn man an diese nicht herankommt.
- “Key to the problem is that funds offer investors the right to take their money out daily, even though the underlying investments may be hard to sell quickly. If too many investors make a withdrawal the fund is forced to sell assets quickly, potentially at a big discount – encouraging more investors to make redemptions before the fund loses more money.” – bto: Das ist kein neues Problem, wird aber vergrößert durch den wachsenden Marktanteil dieser Produkte und der wegfallenden Rolle der Banken als Market Maker.
- “This can be a problem beyond the individual fund, its investors and the businesses reliant on its finance. It could spread through the real economy, harming businesses, savers and growth in a systemic way that did not exist at the time of the financial crisis.” – bto: eben, weil die Risiken heute nicht mehr bei den Banken, sondern bei den Investoren liegen!
- “(…) the risk has moved as banks cut back lending, particularly high-risk lending to indebted businesses that now rely on market financing from mutual funds, hedge funds and insurers. (…) If fund investors pull money from bond funds, businesses could find themselves without access to debt, hitting the real economy as investment dries up.” – bto: vor allem, weil diese Unternehmen selbst hoch verschuldet sind!
- “Borrowing by indebted companies, known as ‘leveraged lending’, has surged in recent years, rising to a peak annual growth rate of more than £50bn. The Bank warned it was a crucial ‘pocket of risk’ in the economy, as the borrowers risked becoming vulnerable to an economic slowdown. (…) such borrowing by companies with a net debt of more than four-times their adjusted profits still amounts to more than a third of all big business debts.” – bto: Und es ist ein weltweites Phänomen! Denke nur an die USA.
