Die Gefahr lauert bei den Bonds
Bekanntlich steht es nicht gut um die Qualität der Bilanzen der US-Unternehmen. Hohe Schulden sind ein erhebliches Risiko für die Finanzstabilität. → Das steht hinter dem Crash: gefährliche Bilanzschwäche der US-Unternehmen
Klare Schlussfolgerung: Es ist gefährlich, in High Yield Bonds zu investieren. Noch scheinen das die Märkte jedoch nicht so zu sehen, wie die FT kritisch bemerkt:
- “(…) there are signs of inconsistencies within the bond market. It is not just a question of the market as a whole being expensive after years of central bank intervention; it also seems as though the risks of both rising interest rates and rising defaults are being underpriced.” – bto: Die Zinsen der schwächeren Schuldner steigen überproportional, sobald das Ausfallrisiko wieder als relevant angesehen wird – wie ich schon schrieb.
- “(…) both intermediate-term bonds, which are barely yielding any more than short-term bonds, and “high-yield” bonds, which are barely yielding more than higher quality bonds, are repaying investors very little for taking extra risk.” – bto: Das unterstreicht nochmals die Gefährlichkeit der Situation.
- Zunächst zum allgemeinen Risiko steigender Zinsen: “The following graph shows the spread in yields between the two- and ten-year Treasury bond (in blue) and what the market expects inflation to be (in green). (…) Over the past twenty years, there have only been three instances when the spread has been this low: right before the 2001 and 2007-2009 recessions, and today.” – bto: Was braucht man denn noch als Indikator?
Quelle: FINANCIAL TIMES
- “Meanwhile, when it comes to credit risk, high-yield bonds carry close to a record low yield, in absolute terms or compared to Treasuries”. – bto: Das wiederum ist der Wahnsinn!
Quelle: FINANCIAL TIMES
- “Over the past twenty years, there has only been one other time when the yield-to-worst [the lowest possible yield that can be received on a bond without the issuer actually defaulting] has been lower than today’s ~5.8% yield, when yields dipped below 5.3% in 2013. The high-yield market went on to post a 10%+ drawdown over the next two years, while the broader bond market was down less than 5%. (…) These numbers might make sense (…) if leverage were reducing, bringing default risk down with it.” – bto: Doch das Gegenteil ist der Fall!
Quelle: FINANCIAL TIMES
- “So the sector is as leveraged as ever. Alternatively, covenant quality might be improving, meaning investors would be able to retrieve more in the case of default. Except it isn’t”. – bto: Das hatte ich bei bto schon ausführlich. Wir haben Tiefstzinsen und fehlende Sicherheiten zugleich. Wow.
Quelle: FINANCIAL TIMES
Fazit FT: “The US fixed income has found its way to a very precarious place. It will be interesting to see how it navigates the next year – and that in turn will provide great lessons for credit markets in Europe, where the retreat from QE still lies in the future.” – bto: Damit wären wir wieder bei den Zombies der Eurozone. Was für einen Mist haben wir uns da eigentlich eingehandelt!
→ FT (Anmeldung erforderlich): “Authers’ Note: Precarious credit markets”, 12. März 2018
