Der kalte Entzug
Wir wissen, dass die Liquidität in den USA und Europa abnimmt. Gemeint sind Zurückhaltung bei der Kreditvergabe, nicht mehr wachsende Geldmengen und die nach Abzug der Inflation real sinkende Geldmenge. Das muss naturgemäß Folgen für die Finanzmärkte haben, ist doch die Veränderung der Liquidität ein entscheidender Faktor.
Der CIO von State Street Global Advisors fasst es in einem Beitrag für die FINANCIAL TIMES (FT) so zusammen:
- „There are three reasons driving our concern. First, the macroeconomic environment has shifted profoundly, moving from the quantitative easing stimulus programmes of central banks to tightening on a co-ordinated basis. Second, elevated uncertainty over monetary policy is leading to heightened rates volatility. The focus of central banks on avoiding 1970s-style inflation is clashing with expectations of a sharp economic contraction that will require a return to easing. Third, changes in the US Treasury market have raised liquidity concerns. The Treasury market has exploded in size, growing more than fivefold over the past 15 years, according to JPMorgan Securities data. However, JPMorgan found the number of primary dealers to facilitate trading has stalled and market depth in US Treasuries declined almost 60 per cent in 2022 to levels only seen in times of a crisis.“ – bto: Das letzte wird gerne vergessen. Die Bankenregulierung hat es verschlechtert, weil diese eben keine Anleihen mehr als Market Maker im Bestand halten, bzw. deutlich geringere Bestände als früher.
- „Many of the most damaging market events are liquidity driven, yet they are also prime opportunities for those with ready cash to pick up assets at attractive prices.“ – bto: Klar, man muss Geld haben, wenn andere keines haben.
- „Liquidity risks and opportunities arrive quickly and are shortlived, as the banking crisis of March so aptly demonstrated.“ – bto: … oder auch die Krise am Markt für UK-Staatsanleihen.
- „So investors should keep an eye out for ‚air pockets‘ of market volatility. Balance sheets are not as liquid as they were. And the Federal Reserve has removed liquidity from the market by selling bonds. In stress points, markets might move more quickly than investors liquidating positions may hope.“ – bto: Interessanterweise sind die Investoren in Umfragen skeptisch, dennoch ist die Liquiditätshaltung gering.
- „Improved risk management tools provide another important solution. Investors should proactively identify areas of stress through monitoring of key indicators such as true trading volumes at pinch points, costs and fund flows while keeping a close examination of market areas that have suffered stress in the past. If a potential risk issue is identified, risk teams need swift measures to mitigate matters.“ – bto: Das klingt für mich alles ziemlich nach dem Pfeifen im Walde.
- „Diversification across sources of liquidity remains imperative. In the past several years, we have learnt that what is generally considered liquid has turned out to lack those properties when most needed. Liquidity is a far broader concept that hinges as much on market structure as it does on credit quality or maturity.“ – bto: Kann man so sehen. Man könnte aber auch sagen: Haltet doch selbst mehr Liquidität.
- „Last, investors should also review their allocations to illiquid assets. A significant amount of money has flowed into private credit, private equity and other asset classes. As uncertainty around capital calls mounts for those investments, investors must hold liquid assets to keep up with any demands.“ – bto: Vor allem sind hier die Mittel langfristig gebunden – das Gegenteil von liquide.
- „Done well, managing liquidity can enable investors to harness opportunities while avoiding downside risks to preserve capital. It has seldom been more important.“ – bto: Die Erkenntnis ist banal. Ich denke, hier werden Symptome beschrieben und der Eindruck erweckt, man könne mit normalen Maßnahmen die Situation bewältigen. Ich denke eher, es spricht viel für deutlich mehr Liquidität als Antwort auf den kalten Entzug, in dem wir uns befinden.
