Das Welt-Finanz­system braucht einen Neustart

Es wird immer wieder vom “großen Reset” gesprochen, auch vom World Economic Forum. Ich tue mich schwer mit Verschwörungstheorien aller Art. Andererseits wissen wir, dass wir uns dem “monetären Endspiel” nähern, nachzulesen in zwei der meistgelesenen Beiträge auf dieser Seite.

Dann lässt es aufhorchen, wenn in der FINANCIAL TIMES (FT) ein Artikel erscheint mit dem Titel: “Time for a great reset of the financial system”. Mit dem Autor spreche ich morgen (6. Juni 2021) in meinem Podcast. Zur Vorbereitung seine Kernaussagen:

• “On average international monetary systems last about 35 to 40 years before the tensions they create becomes too great and a new system is required. Prior to the first world war, major economies existed on a hard gold standard. Intra-wars, most economies returned to a ‘semi-hard’ gold standard. At the end of the second world war, a new international system was designed — the Bretton Woods order — with the dollar tied to gold, and other key currencies tied to the dollar. When that broke down at the start of the 1970s, the world moved on to a fiat system where the dollar was not backed by a commodity, and was therefore not anchored. This system has now reached the end of its usefulness.” – bto: Jetzt kann man diskutieren, worin der Nutzen eines ankerlosen, massiv manipulierbaren Systems liegt außer in der Schaffung einer Überschuldungssituation, der man nur mit einem “great reset” begegnen kann. “An understanding of the drivers of the 30-year debt supercycle illustrates the system’s tiredness. These include the unending liquidity that has been created by the commercial and central banks under this anchorless international monetary system. That process has been aided and abetted by global regulators and central banks that have largely ignored monetary targets and money supply growth.” – bto: Nein, die globalen Regulierungsbehörden und Zentralbanken haben es nicht ignoriert, sondern bewusst gefördert, um die Illusion von Scheinwohlstand zu schaffen.
• “The massive growth of mortgage debt across most of the world’s major economies is one key example of this. Rather than a shortage of housing supply, as is often postulated as the key reason for high house prices, it’s the abundant and rapid growth in mortgage debt that has been the key driver in recent decades.” – bto: Ein unbegrenzt schaffbares Gut trifft auf ein knappes.
• “(…) now is a good time for the major economies of the west (and ideally the world) to sit down and devise a new international monetary order. As part of that there should be widespread debt cancellation, especially the government debt held by central banks. We estimate that amounts to approximately $25tn of government debt in the major regions of the global economy.” – bto: Wie soll das funktionieren? Ich hatte diese Diskussion auch schon. Denn einfaches Ausbuchen ändert ökonomisch nichts.
• “Whether debt cancellation extends beyond that should be central to the negotiations between policymakers as to the construct of the new system — ideally it should, a form of debt jubilee.” – bto: Es gibt aber auch eine andere Seite – die der Sparer. Denn hier gibt es massive Verluste für jene, die Kredite gaben – und das sind die Sparer.
• “(…) recapitalisation of parts of the financial system should be included as part of the establishment of the new international monetary order. Equally, the impact on pension assets also needs to be considered and prepared for.” – bto: Aber dann hat der Schuldner doch wieder die Schulden. Denn woher sollen die Mittel zur Rekapitalisierung kommen?
• “Secondly, policymakers should negotiate some form of anchor — whether it’s tying each other’s currencies together, tying them to a central electronic currency or maybe electronic special drawing rights, the international reserve asset created by the IMF.” – bto: Die Logik ist also, wieder zu einer Knappheit und damit einer Ordnung zu kommen.
• “(…) the ability of central and commercial banks to create unending amounts of liquidity and new debt. This has created somewhat speculative economies, overly reliant on cheap money (whether mortgage debt or otherwise) that has then funded serial asset price bubbles. Whilst asset price bubbles are an ever-present feature throughout history, their size and frequency has picked up in recent decades. As the Fed reported in its 2018 survey, every major asset class over the 20 years from 1997 through to 2018 grew on average at an annual pace faster than nominal GDP. In the long term, this is neither healthy nor sustainable.” – bto: Ja, es geht nicht, wenngleich Piketty und Co. – die diesen Mechanismus nicht verstehen – behaupten, es ginge.
• “With a liquidity anchor in place, the world economy will then move closer to a cleaner capitalist model where financial markets return to their primary role of price discovery and capital allocation based on perceived fundamentals (rather than liquidity levels). Growth should then become less reliant on debt creation and more reliant on gains from productivity, global trade and innovation. In that environment, income inequality should recede as the gains from productivity growth become more widely shared.” – bto: Das ist ein sehr wichtiges Ziel!
• “The key reason that many western economies are now overly reliant on consumption, debt and house prices is because of the set-up of the domestic and international monetary and financial architecture. A Great Reset offers therefore opportunity to restore (some semblance of) economic fairness in western, and other, economies.” – bto: Richtig, aber es ist leichter gefordert als organisiert und umgesetzt.

→ ft.com (Anmeldung erforderlich): “Time for a great reset of the financial system”, 18. März 2021