Corona: Es ist eben kein “V”, sondern die gespiegelte Wurzel
Die neuesten Nachrichten zur europäischen Wirtschaft klingen nicht mehr so gut:
- Der ifo-Index ist schlechter als von der Börse erwartet.
- “The Bank of Spain has just downgraded its GDP forecast again, expecting a contraction of up to 12.6pc this year, with full recovery pushed out until 2023.” – bto: Da müssen wir aber noch viel Geld überweisen, wenn das so ist.
- “France has lifted its forecast slightly to minus 10pc this year (from minus 11pc) but may have jumped the gun. Emmanuel Macron is determined to avoid a second lockdown but the 14-day toll of new cases rockets to 198 per 100,000 and is now worse than the first wave in March, with deaths ratcheting up this week to 1.0.” – bto: Könnte es kommen wie bei der Spanischen Grippe, wo die zweite Welle viel schlimmer war?
- “Italy has so far avoided second wave alarms but damage below the company water line is already grave. A paper for the Review of Corporate Finance Studies – The Covid-19 Shock and Equity Shortfall – found that 17pc of 81,000 Italian companies sampled will have negative net worth within a year. The same pattern probably holds for the whole of southern Europe.” – bto: Das klingt doch nach der Zombifizierung der besonderen Art.
- “The Stoxx 600 index of European banks this week fell below levels (…) seen during the eurozone banking crisis. It has been a slow death spiral, made worse by regulatory overkill and negative rates that erode their bread and butter lending models. Boston Consulting says the net interest margin of banks has been whittled down from 250 basis points to almost zero.” – bto: Auch das trägt zur Zombifizierung bei.
- “Consultants Oliver Wyman estimate that bank losses could reach €830bn over three years, with half of the European lending system barely surviving, unable to generate enough from retained earnings to rebuild their defences. They are already acting preemptively to shore up their capital buffers, tightening credit lines to vulnerable firms, threatening to set off a vicious circle.” – bto: Die EZB wird alles kaufen, auch schlechte Schuldner.
- “Japanification is setting in. Core inflation has dropped to a record low of 0.4pc. Headline inflation has fallen to minus 2.1pc in Greece, minus 0.6pc in Spain, and minus 0.5pc in Italy, storing up trouble for debt dynamics.” – bto: Ja, in der Tat, es sieht immer schlechter aus.
- “There is almost nothing that the ECB can do to combat this deflationary freeze or to revive economic growth, short of becoming a monetary-fiscal Reichsbank and financing deficits directly. Such action would court political fate. The German Constitutional Court is already on the warpath, accusing Frankfurt of engaging in quasi-fiscal rescues of insolvent states.” – bto: Das sehe ich anders. Es wird kommen und ich bleibe bei meinem Vorschlag, dass wir Staatsschulden aller Länder bei der EZB abladen.
Dies spricht nicht für das “V”. Ich habe mich immer skeptisch bezüglich des “Vs” geäußert. Die gespiegelte Wurzel war das Bild, mit dem ich arbeite. Eine zunächst schnelle Erholung, gefolgt von einer Phase langsamer Erholung ab einem Niveau von vielleicht 80 Prozent.
Interessant in diesem Zusammenhang ein Beitrag der FINANCIAL TIMES (FT), der zeigt, wie nachhaltig die Schäden der Krise wirken.
- „(…) consensus economic forecasts for gross domestic product growth are being revised generally upwards. This optimism could soon be challenged. (…) with a very low chance of an effective vaccine or testing regime being widely available much before next spring, the reopening of schools and businesses may lead to surges in infections that are controllable only through widespread lockdowns.“ – bto: Ich denke nach wie vor, dass das verhindert wird. Eher gibt es Ausgangs- und Kontaktverbote für bestimmte Personengruppen.
- „In the longer term, the main risk to advanced economies is economic scarring. According to the OECD Interim Economic Assessment published last week, the effects of greater uncertainty will include higher precautionary savings by households and lower business investment, particularly by companies with high debt.“ – bto: Das unterstreicht meine Meinung: Wir brauchen eine Entschuldung der Unternehmen, wenn wir wirklich einen Aufschwung wollen.
- „Structural changes in sectoral output caused or accelerated by the pandemic will trigger bankruptcies and job losses. This process of “creative destruction” is necessary for long-term recovery, but will inevitably mean lower levels of output for a lengthy period compared with the growth path seen pre-pandemic recessions.“ – bto: Dazu muss man wissen, dass dieses Wachstum schon wegen der Finanzkrise auf einem tieferen Niveau war. Hinzu kommt die Politik, die mit Blick auf den Klimawandel den Strukturwandel über das Knie bricht.
- „Among individual economies, China will be by far the most successful of the major economies in handling the virus shock, (…) Its GDP actually rises by 2 per cent this year, then surges to 15 per cent above pre-Covid levels in 2022. (…) The US is expected to record a smaller drop in output this year than the EU and UK, with a slower rebound in 2021. Japan is the only major economy that fails to recover all its lost ground by 2022.“ – bto: Das ist der “V”-Teil.
- „(…) the previous growth path will not be achieved for many years. The latest forecasts suggest scarring in 2022 will be 3.0 percentage points of global GDP and 3.3 percentage points for the AEs. These estimates appear to be subject to greater risks on the downside than the upside. The three-year scarring seen after the financial crisis was roughly twice what is expected this time. Then, early forecasts of a very sharp economic rebound proved far too optimistic. Furthermore, the trend growth rate never recovered to pre-crisis levels, so the scarring effect continued to increase year by year for the rest of the decade.“ – bto: Die Flughöhe war geringer vor Corona und wir bekommen das Flugzeug jetzt nicht mal auf dieses Niveau zurück.
- „A repeat of these disappointments is a very credible risk.“ – bto: Und dann kommen die Strukturmaßnahmen der Politiker dazu. Keine gute Mischung.
