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“Brexit or not, the pound will crash”

Eine kritische Sicht auf unser Ponzi-Schema mit Fokus auf Großbritannien:

  • “The global elite managed to resurrect a dying system in the 1970s by giving its people something for nothing. Debt accumulation collateralized by rising asset values became a substitute for productivity and wage increases.” – bto: genau der Punkt, den ich in meiner Piketty-Kritik auch mache. Das Leverage führt zu steigenden Assetpreisen, die dann wiederum höhere Verschuldung ermöglichen. 
  • “While people could no longer afford to pay for their health care, education, house or car through savings they kept on voting for the incumbents (no, there is no difference between center left and right) since friendly bankers were more than willing to make up the difference.” – bto: gut gesagt. Das war in den USA so, bei uns war es schuldenfinanzierter Sozialstaat.
  • “(…) the massive misallocation and consumption of capital such a perverted system enables will eventually collapse on itself. Debt used to be productive, id est. self-liquidating, but now it is used for consumption backed by future income projections based on historical experience.” – bto: Und diese werden zwangsläufig enttäuscht werden.
  • “(…) one should not extrapolate future income streams from a historical regime when the new one is fundamentally different. The promised incomes obviously never materialized and the world reached peak debt. The credit Ponzi is dead.” – bto:  Also, mit “peak” bin ich mir nicht sicher, die Führung wird das noch sehr viel weiter treiben. Siehe Japan. Bis wir alle japanisch sind, vergeht noch einiges an Zeit …
  • “Consider the following chart that depicts decennial change in average real earnings for the UK worker. It shows an unprecedented development. Not since the 1860s have the UK worker experienced falling real earnings over a ten-year period.” – bto: Das ist natürlich ein Hammer.

Decennial Change UK average real earnings

Quelle: BAWERK

  • “People no longer believe in a brighter future and there is nothing more detrimental to a human being than that. No longer vested in the status quo, people opt for radical change, hence; Brexit, Trump, Le Pen, Lega Nord, 5MS. Old rules does not apply anymore.” – bto: Ja, genau diesen Punkt macht auch Martin Wolf in der FT. 
  • “Productively invested capital and high savings are the indispensable ingredients in rising labour productivity. Consume your seed corn and productivity growth falls or even turns negative. (…) Bottom line, the west is in a structural downturn, caused by decades of economic mismanagement and there is nothing our money masters can do to rectify it; they will only make the problem worse by postponing the inevitable.” – bto: wie ich intensiv bei bto diskutiert habe. Labour Prod in UK 1850 to presentQuelle: BAWERK
  • Dann spezifisch zu Großbritannien: “Their current account deficit at 6 per cent of GDP is reminiscent of countries heading into depressions. (…) The pound got a pounding on the Brexit vote, but it was destined to fall anyways. The adjustment needed to correct this imbalance is not over and we should all expect a far weaker pound in the months and years ahead. Brexit only triggered what was already baked into the cake in the first place.” – bto: Das fand ich ganz interessant.UK current account simple

Quelle: BAWERK

  • “The immediate withdrawal form UK real estate funds, which has since been gated, is the dying canary signalling what will come; the current account deficit will no longer be funded by complacent foreigners. The pound will collapse thus forcing the long overdue correction the UK economy desperately need for long-term sustainable prosperity.” – bto: in der Tat, eine hohe Abhängigkeit von ausländischem Kapital.UK BoP

Quelle: BAWERK

  • “When it does GDP follows suit as it have one ever since the UK became a fully financialized economy. From the 1990s whenever the current account deficit went through three per cent of GDP, growth collapsed shortly after as the economy went through necessary adjustments. Today’s gap is at record level and it is thus logical that the coming adjustment will be even more gut wrenching that it has ever been.” – bto:  Es wird spannend sein, dies zu beobachten. Generell muss ein schwaches Pfund nicht schlecht sein. GDP vs CA UK

Quelle: BAWERK

bto:  Großbritannien ist nur ein Beispiel. Das Ponzi-Schema ist im ganzen Westen gelaufen und wir haben weite Teile der Welt mit angesteckt.

→ BWERK.NET: “Brexit or not, the pound will crash”, 15. Juli 2016