“U.S. politicians love to attack China and Mexico for stealing jobs. Germany could be next.”
Gestern habe ich an dieser Stelle meinen Beitrag für das manager magazin veröffentlicht, in dem ich den deutschen Exportfokus mit der Strategie der Eichhörnchen verglichen habe: putzige Tierchen, aber nicht sonderlich intelligent. Scheinbar hat das The Washington Post so gut gefallen, dass sie in einem Artikel, der auf die zunehmenden Handelskonflikte auch mit Deutschland eingeht, auf diesen Kommentar Bezug nimmt:
- “The Munich-based Ifo economic institute predicted this week that Germany’s current account surplus — basically how much goods and services it exports, less how much it imports — will hit an all-time high of $310 billion in 2016. China’s surplus, on the other hand, is projected to shrink by $70 billion to some $260 billion this year due to weaker exports. In this way, the country that has gained the biggest advantage in dollar terms from world trade is not China, nor any other emerging market. It’s Germany.”
- “(…) how come Germany, a country that has one of the highest average incomes in the world, also has such an edge in global trade? Indeed, Germany had a surplus with the U.S. in goods alone of about $74.8 billion last year. It overtook Mexico in 2012 in terms of a lopsided trade balance and is now the country with the second largest trade surplus with America, second only to China. The U.S. replaced France last year as Germany’s most important trading partner.”
- “(…) how come Germany, a country that has one of the highest average incomes in the world, also has such an edge in global trade?“
- “The country prides itself of its high quality products and their competitiveness. German cars, machines or chemical products are cutting edge in many sectors, and companies have been skilled in producing exactly what industrializing countries like China or Brazil were demanding — such as high-speed trains and advanced factory equipment. As a result, even though the world economy has been struggling in recent years, Germany’s exports have grown constantly.”
- “Although many BMWs or Siemens machines are marvelous examples of technology, their prices are artificially low. Germany has profited from a cheap euro for years (while less competitive euro-zone nations suffered). Because Germany shares the euro with poorer, less competitive countries like Portugal and Greece, its currency is cheaper than it would otherwise be.”
- “Germany on average has lower wages than Belgium or Ireland, though one could hardly argue that their economies have been as productive in the past years. The relatively small incomes of German workers contribute to the trade surplus, because they have relatively little to spend on imports.”
- “The irony to all this is Germany isn’t even profiting that much from its record surpluses. All the money flowing in from abroad has to go somewhere, but solid investment options are scarce at the moment. In the past, the nation’s banks invested heavily in American subprime-loans or Greek bonds for example. We know how that played out. ‚Like squirrels, we’re fiercely collecting nuts — but won’t find them in winter‘, German economist Daniel Stelter recently wrote in a column.”
bto: Die Argumente sind bekannt, zeigen aber eine zunehmend kritische Haltung bezüglich unserer Wirtschaftsstrategie. Protektionismus gepaart mit Forderungsausfällen dürfte hierzulande erhebliche politische Konsequenzen haben.
