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“Why the eurozone will defy sceptics in 2017”

Gestern habe ich mich kritisch mit den Aussagen von Thomas Fricke auseinandergesetzt, heute ein anderer Blick auf die Eurozone, ein positiver, in einem Kommentar bei der FT – von Alberto Gallo, Head of Macro Strategies bei Algebris Investments. Die Argumente sind sehr stichhaltig und zeigen, wie ich finde erneut, dass es einen Unterschied zwischen langfristigem Überleben und kurzfristigen Marktopportunitäten gibt.

Gallo argumentiert so:

  • “The case for investing in the eurozone has never been harder to make than in 2017. The forthcoming calendar indeed looks like a political minefield. Anti-euro candidates are gaining ground in the Netherlands and France. The UK is about to start its Brexit split, while Greece’s Syriza government is struggling to agree on a deal with creditors. Against this backdrop, investors often decide to give up on Europe altogether.” – bto: Hinzu kommt noch die Angst vor einer Zahlungseinstellung Frankreichs im Falle eines Sieges von Marine Le Pen.
  • “We have not. First, growth and inflation continue to accelerate. Europe has been faring better than the US in the latest indices of economic surprises, which track growth performance against consensus. While Italy, France and Portugal are lagging behind, other countries are steaming ahead at well over 2 per cent growth.” – bto: Dennoch sind Frankreich und Italien nicht unwichtig …
  • “Second, there is a positive outcome for European politics. Populist candidates Geert Wilders and Ms Le Pen have gained ground in the Netherlands and France, but they remain head-to-head with others. Our estimates show a high probability of Ms Le Pen passing the first round but with a low probability of victory.” – bto: Das stimmt, aber das wissen die Märkte doch auch. Oder?
  • “Third, the ECB’s monetary policy stimulus is starting to benefit the real economy. (…) Until now, the biggest obstacle to credit transmission was the poor health of eurozone banks, still encumbered by €1tn of bad loans and overblown balance sheets of around €31tn — three times the size of the economy. But today, banks are on the mend, having added more than €260bn of capital since 2010, and the ECB’s plan is now starting to bear fruit. Loans to non-financial firms, which had been falling for several years, have risen by 2 per cent year-on-year in December.” – bto: Was – bitte – soll gut daran sein, dass die Bilanzsumme eines völlig überdehnten Sektors nun wieder wächst?
  • “European stocks cost $12.75 for every $1 of future earnings, against nearly $16-$17 in the US and Japan. Italian and French debt has sold off to record-high spreads not seen since 2014 and 2012, respectively. In other words, financial markets price in a near-certain high growth and inflation in the US on the policies set by the Trump administration, while discounting break-up risk in Europe.” – bto: Ja, ohne Zweifel ist Europa viel billiger als die USA. Immer schon. Kann also sein, dass Europa auch fällt, wenn die USA fallen.
  • “Eurozone leaders surely need a rethink of their strategy. One option is to build a more flexible union (…) The alternative is one of a closer Europe, which both France and Italy support, as well as German opposition leader Martin Schulz.” – bto: Ich halte eine vertiefte Union für undenkbar, was allerdings angesichts der bisherigen deutschen Politik nicht bedeutet, dass sie nicht kommt. So könnte Schulz die Wohlstandsvernichtung konsequent fortsetzen.
  • “Whichever the way forward, however, eurozone institutions still have plenty of dry powder. The €500bn-strong European Financial Stability fund is still untapped, while Europeans support the EU project even in countries hard-hit by recessions: 73 per cent were either positive or neutral as of mid-2016, according to the European Commission’s eurobarometer.” – bto: Das mag auch stimmen. Die Mehrheit wollte ja auch keinen Brexit (in den Umfragen).
  • “The US and the UK rank at the top two places for inequality among western countries, which restrictive trade and migration policies are likely to make worse. Instead, against the threat of rising populism, Europe’s social safety net and its inclusive welfare policies could turn into strengths, giving it more social and political stability than investors expect.” – bto: Das trifft sicherlich zu. Dennoch glaubt man in Deutschland (!) mit dem Thema “Ungleichheit” Wahlen zu gewinnen.

Fazit: “Many have predicted a break-up of the European monetary union since 2008. I believe they will be proven wrong again in 2017.” – bto: Das glaube ich auch. Aber das ist keine „Rettung“, es ist nur ein weiteres Jahr.

→ FT (Anmeldung erforderlich): “Why the eurozone will defy sceptics in 2017”, 7. Februar 2017