„Brexit‚ Hardly The Stuff Of Economic Calamity‘“
- JPMorgan Asset Management CIO Michael Cembalest ist wirklich einer der hellsten Köpfe, wenn es um das Verständnis von Finanzmärkten und der Gesamtwetterlage geht. Wir hatten einen regen Austausch, als ich das „Back to Mesopotamia“-Papier veröffentlicht habe. Seine Einschätzung: „So müsste man es tun, aber es wird von der Politik nicht gemacht werden. Das trauen sie sich nicht.“ Er hat recht, wie man – bis jetzt – sehen kann.
Mit Blick auf den Brexit hat er eine recht nüchterne Sicht, wie Zero Hedge berichtet:
- „‚UK growth will suffer a huge hit.‘ Of all the analyses I’ve read about a possible Brexit scenario, I found Open Europe’s report to be the most clear-headed and balanced. Their realistic case estimates the cumulative impact of Brexit on UK GDP at just –0.8% to 0.6% by the year 2030; hardly the stuff that economic calamity is made of.” – bto: Überhaupt sind die Berechnungen so von Annahmen abhängig.
- „‚UK-EU trade will collapse.‘ Not necessarily. Norway, Iceland and Switzerland have entered into agreements with the EU on trade and labor mobility (European Economic Area, European Free Trade Area). As shown below, these three non-EU countries export as much to the EU as its members do.” – bto: Vor allem haben wir ein großes Interesse am britischen Markt.
- „‚The British pound could weaken.‘ UK core inflation and retail prices are rising at around 1%; inflation risks seem manageable even if the British pound weakened from here.”
- „‚Brexit would encourage support for nationalist movements in the Eurozone.‘ Podemos (Spain), the 5-star Movement (Italy) and the National Front (France) experienced electoral gains well before the Brexit referendum took shape. Rising support for these parties reflects voter concerns about the growth and employment consequences of being a Eurozone member and using the Euro (e. g., 0.3% Italian annual real GDP growth since 1996, even worse than Japan), while the Brexit vote does not. I find it hard to believe that the future destiny of the Eurozone, however uncertain it may be, will be affected by a decision made in a country that’s not even a member.” – bto: wie ich auch immer schreibe. Der Euro geht so oder so in die Krise.
- „‚Without the UK, the EU would suffer a loss in geopolitical influence on military and security matters.‘ That has already happened. Europe’s increasing reliance on the US to finance 75 % of NATO has been a long-standing process that began in the early 1990s. Since that time, European military spending has fallen to 1.5 % of GDP (below NATO’s 2 % target), compared to 3.5 % – 4.0 % in the US, 2.0 % in China and 4 % – 5 % in Russia. An illustrative quote from Camille Grand at the Fondation pour la Recherche Strategique: ‚We are moving toward a Europe that is a combination of the unable and the unwilling.‘ These dynamics appear structural, and are unlikely to be materially changed by the Brexit outcome.“
- „‚What about all the things we don’t know?‘ There are unknowns in financial markets, some of which can be mitigated by Fed extension of swap lines to central banks dealing with adverse capital flows. However, consider the counterfactual: what are risks for the UK of remaining in the EU? As shown below, while some EU countries are in the same economic, political and judicial „orbit“ as the UK, the ones that are further away (France, Spain, Italy) arguably exhibit just as strong an influence on EU policy, and by extension, on members like the UK.“
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„There are unknowns in financial markets, some of which can be mitigated by Fed extension of swap lines to central banks dealing with adverse capital flows. However, consider the counterfactual: what are risks for the UK of remaining in the EU? As shown below, while some EU countries are in the same economic, political and judicial „orbit“ as the UK, the ones that are further away (France, Spain, Italy) arguably exhibit just as strong an influence on EU policy, and by extension, on members like the UK.“
- „Our cluster chart is based on data from the World Economic Forum’s Competitiveness Rankings. The closer countries are to each other, the more similar they are with respect to WEF factors. While some EU countries are in the UK’s immediate orbit (GER, NETH, SWE, IRL), other EU countries are not (FRA, ITA, ESP, PRT).“ – bto: Ganz nebenbei erklärt das Bild auch, weshalb der Euro scheitern MUSS.
„From a purely theoretical UK perspective, a political union based on commonly shared practices & principles might include CAN, NOR, SWI and the USA instead.“ – bto: !!! Da wäre ich auch lieber dabei!
