China treibt Wirtschaft und Märkte. Wie lange noch?

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Die UBS fragt: Where is the epicentre of the reflation trade?“ Spannende Frage und wie so oft muss ich mich mangels Originalquelle bei Zero Hedge bedienen. Es lohnt sich aber:

Zero Hedge zitiert aus dem UBS-Bericht:

  • (…) few have been able to establish exactly what the reflation trade is all about – hopes of lower taxes and regulations, higher inflation, a revival in investment and manufacturing, or merely defeating extreme pessimism? Unless we recognise its driver, and understand its texture, we won’t be able to assess whether reflation will prosper, suffocate, or mutate.“ – bto: Es ist wohl eher die Hoffnung, die Eiszeit zu überwinden.
  • During Q4 2016 the US certainly was the flag-bearer of the reflation trade. Both prior and post that spell of time, the economy at the epicentre of the most significant growth impulse for the global economy has actually been China. Its import volumes rose by just under 15% over the last 12 months, providing a solid boost to global growth. By comparison, US‘ import volumes grew by 3.5%, while Europe’s were nearly flat over the same period.“ – bto: Es ist China, von dem wir alle abhängen. Mehr als die Hälfte des Weltwirtschaftsgipfel-Wachstums hängt bekanntlich an China.
  • „The global economy is an interconnected structure, and it would be incorrect to categorically claim that there is a unique form of reflation, the genesis of which lies entirely in one region or another. As financial and consumer balance sheets have healed, hard data in the US and Europe have also improved, particularly retail sales, housing and labour markets. Inflation expectations too are well off last year’s lows. The relative weakness lies in production and capital expenditure, which, while on very gradual positive trend, are not yet strong enough to engineer a response in growth globally through robust imports.“ bto: Angesichts der mauen Wachstumsaussichten lohnt es für Unternehmen nicht, zu investieren. Außerdem zeigen sich viele Investitionen nicht in den Zahlen, weil es eher Richtung IT und Software geht. Diese werden immer billiger und sind zudem in der Buchhaltung oftmals anders berücksichtigt.

Quelle: zerohedge.com

  • „As the chart above shows, while there has been some degree of retail sales and labour market healing in most major economies, when we look for the core of the reflationary stimulus, a region that has also helped growth in other regions through higher imports, China stands head and shoulders above everyone else. US and Japanese import volumes have grown modestly, but nowhere close to China’s have. European import growth has really been about higher values than volumes.“ bto: China als – schuldengetriebener Wachstumsmotor der Welt.

Quelle: zerohedge.com

  • „So if China was the global reflation drive, how did this inflation spread to the rest of the world… what was the pathway in question? The answer – imports. (…)  looking at it in values, it is clear that till recently commodity demand has driven China’s import pick up. This isn’t only driven by higher prices, commodity import volumes have risen strongly too. Manufacturing imports  have pushed higher recently as micro data suggest a revival in production.“ bto: was interessant ist, spricht es doch für eine wirkliche Erholung.

Quelle: zerohedge.com

  • „Which, ultimately, brings us to the (…) China’s credit impulse:

Quelle: zerohedge.com

  • „(…) the market seems to be extrapolating recent Chinese strength all the way at least to the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party in autumn. In reality the credit impulse has turned negative, and as officials‘ focus seems to be shifting from growth to containing leverage. In short, the best of China’s growth impulse for the global economy may be behind us, and while it is unclear if this may spark another capital flight one China’s economy again cools off, it would not be at all surprising to see a resumption in tens if not hundreds of billions in Yuan capital flight each month. bto: Wir sind wieder beim Thema: Es geht nicht ohne die Schulden und es stellt sich die Frage, wie lange China weitermachen kann?
  • „To answer the question if China can hand over the global growth torch to the US, UBS points out that over the past 2 years US investment has grown at a slower pace than consumption, which typically only happens in recessions. After being a drag for 3 quarters Investment contributed positively to GDP in the last two quarters of 2016. The momentum here will have to build in a big way if US is to take over the reflationary baton from China.“ bto: Und dort gibt es bekanntlich einen großen Unterschied zwischen den weichen und den harten Daten.

Quelle: zerohedge.com

  • Thus far, we see few convincing signs that trend growth rates in these regions are changing materially. Again, we will be watching investment, production and capacity utilisation most closely. These need to pick up for Western reflation to bring improved cash flows to global companies. If the healing is limited to the labour market and housing, that home-made brand reflation, we may only get more hawkish central banks without the global growth impulse; an unhelpful mutation of the reflation trade.“ bto: womit die Aufschwunghoffnung in sich zusammenfällt.
  • „The conclusion: Driven by the twin engines of Fed and China monetary largesse and a positive commodity price shock, the passive trade has run a long way. It is time to pare down some cyclical exposure.“ bto: weil es eben zurückgeht in die Eiszeit. Was wir erleben, ist eine zwischenzeitliche Tauperiode. Mehr nicht.

Doch es gibt noch Hoffnung: China setzt alles daran, die Wirtschaft weiter mit Schulden zu treiben:

„At today’s Yuan exchange rate, China’s credit creation in Q1 amounted to just over 1 trillion US dollars:“

Quelle: zerohedge.com

UFF!!

zerohedge.com: „UBS Reveals Who Was Responsible For The Global Reflation“, 13. April 2017

zerohedge.com: „China Just Flooded Its Economy With A Record Amount Of New Debt“, 14. April 2017

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