Best of 2016: „Why the euro is a long way from challenging the dollar’s dominance“

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Dieser Beitrag erschien im Juni 2016 bei bto:

In dem bereits in der letzten Woche an dieser Stelle zitierten Interview des SPIEGEL mit Wolfgang Schäuble hat dieser ziemlich steile Thesen aufgestellt. So unter anderem, dass der Euro die unangefochtene Weltreservewährung Nummer zwei und stabil sei. Das klingt super.

Ja, wir haben keine Inflation, doch ist das schon ein Zeichen für Gesundheit? Wohl eher für die Krankheit, würde ich sagen. Und die Weltreservewährung Nummer zwei ist doch auch gut. Doch wie immer bei solchen Aussagen muss man genauer hinschauen. Und das tat zufälligerweise der Telegraph in der letzten Woche. Ein paar interessante Fakten:

  • When the euro was created (…), one of the implicit goals, at least to the French, was to challenge that (status of the Dollar). A single European currency would be big enough and strong enough to take on the mighty greenback, and eventually even topple it from its throne.
  • It hasn’t happened. According to the latest calculations from the European Central Bank, the euro is not making any progress against the dollar at all.
  • Instead, its share of global currency reserves is declining  steadily every year. Extraordinarily, on some measures, it is now even less important than the old German Deutschmark used to be all by itself – in effect, the other 18 national currencies have been turned into nothing.
  • In fairness, it was not a completely stupid idea. After all, the European Union had, and still does have, both a bigger population and a bigger overall GDP than the US: the EU has slightly over 500m people, compared with 318m in the US, and claims a larger total output.
  • The latest ECB figures show the euro is now declining as a reserve currency. Soon after the currency was launched in 1999, it accounted for 20pc of global reserves.By 2003/4, it was getting up close to 25pc.
  • Since then however it has stalled and then gone into reverse. By last year, the euro accounted for just 19.9pc of global reserves, the lowest level since launch.
  • And here is an extraordinary fact. According to Bundesbank data, if you go back to 1990 and 1991, the Deutschmark by itself accounted for 19pc of global reserves.
  • Even the French franc accounted for 2.4pc of global reserves in the 1990s.  It is as if the French franc, Italian lira and Spanish peseta never existed.
  • Its share of global international payments has dropped from 33pc to 31pc, reflecting the decline of Europe’s economy. Foreign demand for eurozone securities also declined in 2015, according to the ECB, and so did the use of the currency in global debt and loan markets.

Who wants to hold a reserve asset that might not be around in a decade? The whole point is to own something rock solid that will be there when you need it. The Chinese yuan, Bitcoin, and even sterling all look a better bet right now.

So viel zu der politischen Aussage unangefochtene Weltreservewährung Nummer zwei und stabil.

→ The Telegraph: „Why the euro is a long way from challenging the dollar’s dominance“, 13. Juni 2016

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