„All or nothing trades not as easy as they sound“

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Die Warnungen vor einem Einbruch an den Finanzmärkten nehmen zu, siehe auch Ray Dalio vom Montag. Doch wie soll man sich darauf einstellen, wie damit Geld verdienen? Ein Beitrag aus der FT über den Londoner Hedge-Fonds-Manager Crispin Odey, der eigentlich sehr gut und erfolgreich ist, unterstreicht, wie schwer es ist, aus einem potenziellen Crash Kapital zu schlagen, einmal abgesehen davon, dass auch das Timing schlecht ist. Hier die FT:

  • „Talk is cheap. Many financial commentators have warned that current monetary policy has inflated a bubble that will one day violently pop. Few of them have risked money betting on the precise manner in which a chaotic unwinding of quantitative easing will play out through financial markets.“ – bto: Das ist auch nicht leicht, wie wir gleich sehen werden.
  • „Crispin Odey, a London-based hedge fund manager, (…) is one of only a handful of investors who has backed up his dire prognosis for the global economy with a series of large, leveraged trades designed to pay off in the event of a crash.“
  • His fund is bleeding cash, down by more than a third this year. His bets are predicated on a collapse of Japanese Bond prices, a surge in the price of gold and immolation of equities. If it works he may make hundreds of millions of dollars for his clients. If wrong his fund may not survive.“ – bto: wie der ehemals größte Währungs-Spekulationsfonds der Welt, der auf den Untergang des Euro gesetzt hat.
  • „The biggest risk he now faces is even if the denouement he predicts finally arrives, his trades may well not react in the way he intended.“
  • „Mr Odey’s first big assumption appears to be that market turmoil will cause the value of the US dollar to rise against other major currencies. (…) This presumably is based on the idea that severe market stress will see investors rush into the safety of the largest global reserve currency.“ – bto: was spontan eigentlich einleuchtet.
  • „This assumption needs to be questioned. In the event of a market catastrophe the only major central bank that has the ability to cut interest rates is the US Federal Reserve. If the Fed is forced to take action this could see the euro and the yen rise against the dollar, rather than fall.“ – bto: Dann wäre der Anstieg temporär.
  • „Added to this both the eurozone and Japan have comparatively strong current account positions. The dollar may indeed surge in a crisis, but it would be unwise to bet your house on it.“
  • „Mr Odey’s second big trade is that Japanese government bond yields will explode higher as financial markets realise that the “all in” Bank of Japan has run out of ammunition. Some macro hedge funds have over the years attempted to short JGBs based on the idea that the country’s indebtedness and poor growth was incompatible with its low yields. JGB yields have continued to drop, leading to the trade being nicknamed the ‚widow maker.“ – bto: Ich sehe auch keinen Anstieg der japanischen Zinsen, solange die BoJ alles kauft.
  • „Again the premise that JGB yields will rise during market turmoil is no certainty. The Japanese are the world’s largest single owners of financial assets, which in the event of a crash would presumably be sold and funds repatriated into yen.“
  • There is a degree of dissonance in how Mr Odey’s long gold position interacts with his overarching premise — that a crisis starting in China explodes through global markets. Large amounts of global gold demand come from Asia.
  • Mr Odey’s single biggest bet is that the value of gold will surge. (…) His intellectual justification for the position is well rehearsed. He recently observed how ‚central banks have printed $80tn of money, backed by only $1.27tn of gold. The real value of this ‚printed‘ money has therefore been debased and logically should fall when priced in gold.“
  • But there is a degree of dissonance in how Mr Odey’s long gold position interacts with his overarching premise — that a crisis starting in China explodes through global markets. Large amounts of global gold demand come from Asia.“
  • Within India the strength of the rupee against the US dollar has historically exerted a strong influence on domestic gold purchases. In the type of a crisis that Mr Odey envisages markets like India (and China, itself one of the world’s largest gold consumers) are precisely those that would suffer sharp currency devaluation.“ – bto: Das leuchtet ein, könnte aber durch eine Flucht in Gold überkompensiert werden.

 

Fazit FT: „For those of us watching from the sidelines the lesson should be clear: predicting a crash is far easier than ensuring you profit from it.“

bto: deshalb lieber eine langweilige Strategie fahren als einseitige Wetten!

→ FT (Anmeldung erforderlich): „All or nothing trades not as easy as they sound“, 3. Oktober 2016

7 Antworten
  1. Stefan Bohle says:

    Ich vermute, dass Crispin Odey ziemlich schnell die Puste ausgeht, sollten sich seine Vorhersagen nicht bewahrheiten. Erkenntnis (so sie denn zutrifft) ist das eine, aber erst Timing macht Könige.
    Hins. der individuellen Assets zeigt sich am Ende, dass bei näherer Betrachtung die einzelnen Asset-Klassen doch einigermaßen effizient bepreist sind und schlauer als der Markt zu sein, ist anspruchsvoll bis Glückssache. Bestes Beispiel ist Gold. Alle, die nur Aufwärtspotenzial sehen, mögen sich einmal den Goldpreis um die Jahrtausendwende betrachten, als er um ca. 75% niedriger als heute lag, ohne dass das Metall heute produktiver glänzt als damals. Da ist also schon viel „Zentralbankengelddruckskepsis“ eingepreist.

    Antworten

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